Match Analysis: Tarik Khbabez vs Sergej Maslobojev – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-14
- Time: 5:00 PM UTC
- Location: Ahoy, Rotterdam, The Netherlands
Game Overview
The match is a light heavyweight kickboxing/MMA title fight and rematch between reigning champion Tarik Khbabez and former champion Sergej Maslobojev at GLORY 100. Their 2022 bout was won by Maslobojev via split decision in a close, high-volume contest. Khbabez now aims to reclaim the title. Maslobojev lost the belt originally due to a doctor’s stoppage caused by a cut, which deeply affected him emotionally. He has since returned strong to GLORY, looking for redemption. This fight carries high stakes with strong motivation on both sides and is expected to be intensely competitive, possibly requiring an extra round if tied after three rounds.
Key Factors to Consider
- Khbabez has maintained momentum as the reigning champion with solid recent performances, showing resilience and tactical improvements since their previous fight. Maslobojev, after a hiatus due to frustration from losing his title to a cut, has returned with renewed focus and determination, showing his capability across kickboxing and MMA disciplines.
- In their previous encounter at GLORY 2022, Maslobojev secured a split decision win in a very close and competitive fight. Both fighters exchanged significant strikes with Maslobojev slightly edging it on points through volume and movement, but Khbabez's aggression and power posed constant threats.
- No recent injuries have been reported for either fighter leading up to the bout, suggesting both are entering the fight at full health and peak physical condition.
- The fight takes place at Ahoy Rotterdam, a venue familiar for high-profile GLORY events, potentially giving Khbabez a slight home crowd advantage as he is popular in the region. The emotional weight of losing the belt due to a cut still lingers for Maslobojev, which may either motivate him further or add psychological pressure.
- Maslobojev is highly motivated to reclaim the belt and prove himself after his controversial loss by cut stoppage, which deeply affected him personally and professionally. Khbabez is motivated to defend his title and avenge his prior loss, proving he is the rightful champion. Both fighters have strong psychological drives supporting their physical skills.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tarik Khbabez: -135, Sergej Maslobojev: +115, Draw: +2500 | Tarik Khbabez to win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Khbabez -1.5: -120, Maslobojev +1.5: +100 | Khbabez to win by more than 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Over/under | Over 3.5 rounds: -110, Under 3.5 rounds: -110 | Over 3.5 rounds (fight likely goes to decision or extra round) | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given the close history and current conditions, the fight is expected to be a highly competitive battle possibly going to a decision or even an extra round. Khbabez’s current form and home advantage slightly tilt the edge in his favor to reclaim the title, but Maslobojev’s motivation and technical skill make an upset very possible.
Predicted Score: Khbabez wins via split decision after 3 rounds or extra round, score approximately 29-28