Match Analysis: Houston Astros vs New York Yankees – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-04
- Time: 11:41 PM UTC
- Location: Daikin Park, Houston, Texas
Game Overview
The Houston Astros host the New York Yankees in a pivotal late-season MLB matchup with both teams holding nearly identical records (Astros 77-63, Yankees 77-62). Probable pitchers are Cristian Javier for Houston and Carlos Rodon for New York, setting up a close pitching duel.
Key Factors to Consider
- Astros have a strong home record (43-31) while Yankees are slightly above .500 on the road (36-34). Yankees' offense led by Aaron Judge and supported by Bellinger and Goldschmidt boasts a solid batting line (.251 avg, .331 OBP, .458 SLG). Pitching-wise, Yankees staff has a 3.93 ERA and 1.26 WHIP; Rodon is performing well with a 15-7 record and 3.18 ERA. Astros have been resilient and recently completed a comeback win, entering this game with momentum.
- Rodon holds a historical advantage over the Astros with a 4-0 record and 2.51 ERA against them. Astros' Javier has been solid but has limited volume in innings this season. Against the spread, Rodon's starts have been less favorable for Yankees (11-17 ATS), while Javier's Astros are 2-2 ATS in his starts. NumberFire predicts a slight edge for Yankees (52.26% win probability) over Astros (47.74%).
- No significant injuries reported for either side that would impact starting pitching or lineup availability.
- Game played at Daikin Park, a Houston stadium with a generally neutral to slightly hitter-friendly environment. Weather and other external factors currently no major impact indicated.
- Both teams are tightly matched in the standings late in the season, motivation is high to secure a crucial win for playoff positioning. Astros coming off a comeback and riding home momentum; Yankees have strong motivation with solid form from Rodon and core hitters.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Houston Astros: +116, New York Yankees: -136 | New York Yankees | β β β β β 72% |
Spread | Houston Astros +1.5: -138, New York Yankees -1.5: +115 | New York Yankees -1.5 | β β β ββ 68% |
Over/under | Over 8.5: -114, Under 8.5: -106 | Under 8.5 | β β β ββ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | New York Yankees -10% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 8.5 11% |
π₯ Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 11% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 11.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Pick the New York Yankees moneyline as the highest expected value play due to superior starting pitching history (Rodonβs dominance over Astros), more reliable bullpen support, and Yankeesβ slightly better recent form and offensive efficiency. Expect a low-scoring tight game favoring New York in clutch situations.
Predicted Score: Yankees 4 – Astros 2