Match Analysis: Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-25
- Time: 11:41 PM UTC
- Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago
Game Overview
This MLB regular season game features the Chicago Cubs hosting the New York Mets at Wrigley Field. Both teams are nearing the end of the 2025 season, with the Cubs starting Steven Imanaga (9-7, 3.37 ERA) and the Mets starting Nolan McLean (4-1, 1.27 ERA). The matchup presents a strong pitching duel on paper, with McLean holding a notably lower ERA but fewer decisions, against the more experienced Imanaga.[4][5][7]
Key Factors to Consider
- The Cubs have had an up-and-down season but show solid home performances. Imanaga offers reliable pitching with a 3.37 ERA over 16 decisions. The Mets have struggled inconsistently but possess strong pitching depth; McLean has been a standout with a 1.27 ERA in limited starts. Offensively, both teams have similar run production averages, making pitching a key battle.[5][7]
- Recent season encounters have been competitive, with close games but no clear dominant team. Historically, home advantage at Wrigley Field slightly favors the Cubs, but the Mets' recent pitching performance could neutralize this edge.[1][4]
- No significant injury reports impacting the starting pitchers or key lineup players have been noted for this matchup, indicating both teams can field their primary competitive rosters.[4][5][7]
- Playing indoors at Wrigley Field can sometimes affect ball carry and hitting. Weather conditions on game day are expected to be stable and not a major factor. Late September games often have playoff implications, increasing player focus but also pressure.[4]
- With the season closing, both teams are likely motivated either for playoff positioning or finishing strong. Mets could be pushing for a wildcard spot, while Cubs aim to leverage home advantage and their more extensive experience in late-season pressure.[4][5][7]
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Chicago Cubs: -108, New York Mets: -108 | New York Mets | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Chicago Cubs +1.5: -192, New York Mets -1.5: 158 | New York Mets -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 7.5: -110, Under 7.5: -110 | Under 7.5 | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York Mets -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 7.5 34% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 7.5 at 34% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 37% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The game is expected to be tightly contested with a slight edge to the New York Mets due to their superior starting pitching in Nolan McLean and better late-season form. However, home advantage and a solid Cubs bullpen suggest it could be close. Prediction favors Mets win by a narrow margin.
Predicted Score: New York Mets 4 – 3 Chicago Cubs