Top EV Parlay for Baseball – September 24, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
New York Yankees vs. Chicago White Sox Prediction	New York Yankees	-375	196%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets Prediction	Under 7	-104	18%
Oakland Athletics vs. Houston Astros Prediction	Under 9	-106	17%

Combined Odds: +383 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $96.57

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals Prediction	Atlanta Braves Win	-184	★★★★☆ 78% (78%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction	Los Angeles Dodgers Win	-154	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox Prediction	Boston Red Sox Win	-142	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +334

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $86.77

Match Analysis: Mantas Kondratavicius vs Dani Barbir – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-24
• Time: 1:55 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Game Overview

The middleweight matchup between undefeated Dani Barbir (7-0 MMA) and Mantas Kondratavicius (7-1 MMA) is the main event of Dana White's Contender Series Season 9, Week 7. Both fighters are skilled strikers, with Barbir known for his submission skills and Kondratavicius for his striking variety and clinch work. The fight is scheduled for three 5-minute rounds. Kondratavicius is currently on a two-fight winning streak and looks to hand Barbir his first professional loss, which could significantly boost his career prospects.

Key Factors to Consider

• Barbir remains undefeated with a strong regional championship defense in Croatia, showing solid grappling via submissions. Kondratavicius has a solid recent form (4-1 last five fights) highlighted by a quick knockout in March 2025, demonstrating power striking and clinch effectiveness.
• No previous head-to-head fights between Dani Barbir and Mantas Kondratavicius have been recorded.
• Barbir withdrew from a previous fight in May 2025 due to injury, but no current injury concerns have been reported for either fighter ahead of the match.
• The fight takes place at UFC Apex, a neutral site. Both fighters motivated by the prospect of securing a UFC contract. Barbir's untested chin and cardio, along with Kondratavicius' lone loss experience, are notable external considerations impacting mental and physical readiness.
• Barbir is motivated to maintain his undefeated record and potentially earn a UFC contract, while Kondratavicius looks to build his resume and break Barbir's undefeated streak, increasing his own chances for UFC promotion.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Dani Barbir: -133, Mantas Kondratavicius: 113	Mantas Kondratavicius to win	★★★☆☆ 67%
Spread	Mantas Kondratavicius -1.5: Unavailable, Dani Barbir +1.5: Unavailable	Mantas Kondratavicius by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 1.5: 157, Under 1.5: -180	Under 1.5 rounds (fight likely to end in early rounds)	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Dani Barbir 19%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Dani Barbir at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Mantas Kondratavicius is predicted to win by KO/TKO, leveraging his superior striking variety and clinch work to exploit Barbir's tendency to absorb damage.

Predicted Score: Mantas Kondratavicius wins by KO/TKO in Round 1 or early Round 2

Match Analysis: Brahyan Zurcher vs Murtazali Magomedov – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-24
• Time: 1:30 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, USA

Game Overview

Highly anticipated featherweight bout between undefeated fighters Brahyan Zurcher and Murtazali Magomedov at Dana White's Contender Series Season 9, Week 7. Both fighters are 9-0 MMA records, making this a clash of top prospects aiming to secure UFC contracts. Zurcher brings technical polish and a relentless work rate from PFL experience, while Magomedov offers superior finishing skills, particularly in submissions, and a notable physical height advantage.

Key Factors to Consider

• Brahyan Zurcher has demonstrated technical striking and grinding pressure with a 5-0 run in PFL and a second-round KO win in his last fight. Murtazali Magomedov has shown speed, aggression, and finishing ability, with recent wins by KO and submission defenses in his home region and Octagon League Featherweight Championship.
• No prior head-to-head meetings. Both enter undefeated, making this their first direct competition, which adds unpredictability.
• No reported injuries or health issues for either fighter ahead of the bout.
• Fighting at UFC Apex in Las Vegas gives a neutral venue. The contest is featured on ESPN+ and UFC Fight Pass with significant stakes, as both fighters vie for UFC roster spots.
• Strong motivation on both sides to maintain undefeated status and secure UFC contracts. Magomedov’s recent title defense provides confidence, while Zurcher aims to translate PFL success into UFC breakthrough.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Brahyan Zurcher: -140, Murtazali Magomedov: 120	Murtazali Magomedov	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 1.5: -185, Under 1.5: 161	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Brahyan Zurcher 28%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 83%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 83% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 51.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

While Zurcher’s technical ability and relentless pace could control the later stages, Magomedov’s reach advantage and submission threats make him the slight favorite. The fight may hinge on whether Magomedov can finish early or survive Zurcher’s pressure. Prediction favors Murtazali Magomedov to win, with a possibility of early submission or KO victory.

Predicted Score: Murtazali Magomedov wins by submission or KO in round 2

Match Analysis: Sofia Montenegro vs Jeisla Chaves – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-24
• Time: 1:05 AM UTC
• Location: Dana White's Contender Series

Game Overview

The MMA flyweight match on Dana White's Contender Series features Sofia Montenegro (6-1) from Argentina and Jeisla Santos Chaves (5-0) from Brazil. Montenegro is a more tested fighter with a somewhat diverse skill set including striking, decent wrestling, and ground and pound, but with defensive issues and a history of a knockout loss. Chaves is undefeated but against significantly weaker competition and with unproven grappling and defensive striking. This fight could be a breakout moment for either fighter seeking UFC contracts.

Key Factors to Consider

• Montenegro has faced opponents with winning records and has demonstrated ability to finish fights via KO/TKO, submission, and decision, albeit with some recklessness and a weak chin. Chaves remains undefeated but her five opponents had no MMA wins and she lacks documented ground skills, relying mainly on a Muay Thai striking base which includes technical but risky striking and poor head movement.
• There is no recorded previous encounter between Montenegro and Chaves.
• No injuries reported for either fighter prior to the match.
• The fight is on Dana White's Contender Series platform, increasing pressure as both fighters look to secure UFC contracts. Montenegro trains at the UFC Performance Institute, suggesting access to high-level facilities and coaching.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, but Montenegro may have an edge due to her experience testing herself against tougher competition and showing recent improvements in fight IQ.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jeisla Chaves: 163, Sofia Montenegro: -188	Sofia Montenegro to win	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -145, Under 2.5 rounds: 125	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Sofia Montenegro -13%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Sofia Montenegro is predicted to win by KO/TKO, likely in the second round, owing to her broader skill set, better test of opponents, and more proven finishing capability despite her defensive vulnerabilities.

Predicted Score: Sofia Montenegro wins by KO/TKO in Round 2

Match Analysis: Justice Torres vs Javier Reyes Rugeles – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-24
• Time: 12:40 AM UTC
• Location: Dana White's Contender Series, Week 7 (venue not explicitly specified)

Game Overview

The fight features Javier Reyes Rugeles (31 years old, 21-5 record) versus Justice Torres (27 years old, 12-3 record) competing at 145 lbs in Dana White's Contender Series Week 7. Both fighters are skilled featherweights with particular strengths: Reyes has a higher number of KOs and submissions; Torres has more decision wins. The fight was a late replacement for originally scheduled opponents, making matchup preparation less stable.

Key Factors to Consider

• Reyes comes in with a 21-5 record, 3-2 in the last five fights, showing recent moderate form. Torres has a 12-3 record with a better recent run of 4-1 in his last five performances. Both have never lost by draw. Reyes shows more finishing ability via KO/TKO and submissions, while Torres wins more often via decisions.
• No previous direct fights between Reyes and Torres have been documented.
• No reported injuries influencing the fight for either fighter according to available data.
• Multiple opponent changes prior to the bout could have impacted fighter camp momentum, particularly for Torres who is a last-minute replacement. The fight is under Dana White's Contender Series spotlight, which creates motivation for UFC contract opportunities.
• Both fighters seek to impress on Contender Series for potential UFC inclusion. Reyes’s longer career and experience may provide confidence; Torres's recent strong form and youth bring high motivation.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Javier Reyes Rugeles: -180, Justice Torres: 155	Javier Reyes Rugeles to win	★★★★☆ 72%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -155, Under 2.5 rounds: 135	Under 2.5 rounds (fight likely to end before round 3)	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Javier Reyes Rugeles -8%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 29%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 29% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 21.7% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Javier Reyes is predicted to edge out a victory against Justice Torres given his finishing ability and experience, though it will be competitive given Torres’s resilience and recent form.

Predicted Score: Javier Reyes Rugeles wins by TKO or submission in round 2

Match Analysis: Jair de Oliveira vs Rafael Tobias – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-24
• Time: 12:15 AM UTC
• Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas

Game Overview

This light heavyweight MMA bout features Brazilian prospects Rafael Tobias (13-1) and Jair de Oliveira (6-0). Tobias is a taller, well-rounded fighter with strong grappling, solid striking, and a notable submission arsenal, while de Oliveira is an undefeated brawler known for speed and knockout power but with questions about his level of competition and conditioning.

Key Factors to Consider

• Tobias' experience and well-rounded skill set from the Chute Boxe Monstro camp contrasts with de Oliveira's comeback path and limited competition history. Tobias demonstrated effective aggressive striking and grappling, while de Oliveira relies heavily on knockout power and speed but has only fought lesser competition.
• This is their first encounter; no prior head-to-head exists.
• No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the bout.
• The fight takes place at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas during Dana White's Contender Series with both fighters seeking to impress for potential UFC contracts. Oliveira is moving down a weight class to 205 lbs, which might affect his conditioning.
• Both fighters are motivated by the opportunity to earn a UFC contract. Tobias appears to have a slight edge given his younger age, activity, and clearer path to a UFC opportunity, while Oliveira aims to prove his viability despite a long layoff and lower competition level.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jair de Oliveira: 325, Rafael Tobias: -390	Rafael Tobias	★★★★☆ 78%
Over/under	over: 207, under: -250	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

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Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Rafael Tobias -10%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -9%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Rafael Tobias is predicted to win via grappling dominance and submissions, likely in the first or second round, given his height, reach, and ground game superiority. Oliveira poses an early knockout threat but may struggle against Tobias' wrestling and submission attempts.

Predicted Score: Rafael Tobias wins by submission in Round 1 or 2