Match Analysis: Freddy Vidal vs Felipe Franco – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-10
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, USA

Game Overview

Freddy Vidal and Felipe Franco face off in a catchweight MMA bout at Dana White's Contender Series (DWCS) Season 9, Week 5. Vidal stepped in on short notice and missed weight by five pounds, forfeiting 25% of his purse to Franco. Vidal holds a 3-0 undefeated record with a 67% KO/TKO rate, while Franco is an 8-0 undefeated fighter with a proven finishing rate via knockouts and submissions. The fight is scheduled for 3 rounds and streamed live on ESPN+ in the USA.

Key Factors to Consider

• Felipe Franco boasts an 8-0 record with 50% of wins by KO/TKO and 38% by submission, showing well-rounded finishing skills. Freddy Vidal has a smaller sample size of 3-0 with a 67% KO rate but lacks experience at higher competition levels. Vidal also missed weight, potentially impacting his performance and stamina.
• There is no previous head-to-head fight between Freddy Vidal and Felipe Franco, making this their first encounter.
• No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the match, but Vidal’s short-notice entry and weight miss imply possible preparation challenges.
• Vidal's catchweight bout due to missing weight suggests a physical disadvantage, and the fight being at UFC Apex with ESPN+ broadcast could add pressure. Vidal forfeited part of his purse to Franco as a penalty.
• Felipe Franco enters with momentum and a desire to maintain his undefeated record, while Vidal’s motivation includes proving himself despite short notice and weight issues. Franco, as the favorite, likely has confidence boosted by recent performances.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Felipe_Franco: -450, Freddy_Vidal: +350	Felipe Franco to win	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Felipe_Franco: -1.5 (-230), Freddy_Vidal: +1.5 (+190)	Felipe Franco to win by more than 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	over_1.5: +207, under_1.5: -250	Under 1.5 rounds (fight likely to end before round 2)	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Felipe Franco -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Felipe Franco is favored to win due to his momentum, experience, and Vidal's short notice and weight miss. Franco's versatility in finishing fights via KO or submission adds to his advantage, and the odds strongly support his victory.

Predicted Score: Felipe Franco wins by KO/TKO in Round 1

Match Analysis: Chasen Blair vs Samuel Sanches – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-10
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, USA

Game Overview

Chasen Blair is seeking a UFC contract on Dana White's Contender Series for the second time, facing the rising Brazilian prospect Samuel Sanches, who boasts a 10-1 record with powerful striking and improving takedown defense. The match promises a clash between Blair's grappling skills and Sanches' explosive knockout power and speed.

Key Factors to Consider

• Blair has strong grappling credentials with multiple submission wins but limited knockout power, while Sanches has six knockouts in his ten wins and excels in striking and quick finishes. Blair recently went 5-0 with eight finishes (seven KOs, one submission), but Sanches' knockout streak and striking evolution give him a momentum edge.
• This is their first encounter, making it a fresh matchup with no head-to-head history influencing the fight dynamics.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the match, suggesting both enter at full health.
• The fight takes place at the UFC Apex, where Blair has prior experience, possibly giving him a slight comfort advantage. The event is broadcast on ESPN+ in the USA, contributing to heightened competitive pressure.
• Blair is motivated by the chance to secure a UFC contract on his second attempt, while Sanches aims to extend his momentum and establish himself as a top lightweight prospect at only 22 years old.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Chasen Blair: -105, Samuel Sanches: -115	Samuel Sanches	★★★★☆ 78%
Over/under	over_1.5_rounds: -128, under_1.5_rounds: 108	Under 1.5 rounds (early finish expected)	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Chasen Blair -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 35%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 35% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Samuel Sanches is favored to win, leveraging his superior striking speed, power, and improved takedown defense to potentially finish Blair inside two rounds.

Predicted Score: Samuel Sanches wins by KO/TKO in Round 2