Match Analysis: Chang Min Yoon vs Sebastian Szalay – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-22
- Time: 9:00 AM UTC
- Location: Road to UFC: Shanghai, Shanghai, China
Game Overview
The featherweight semifinal at Road to UFC: Shanghai features Chang Min Yoon against Sebastian Szalay. Both fighters are closely matched in weight class (145 lbs) and bring solid records, with Yoon having an 8-2-1 record and Szalay at 9-1. The bout is scheduled for 3 rounds as part of the event hosted on August 22, 2025.
Key Factors to Consider
- Chang Min Yoon holds an 8-2-1 record with a diverse finishing ability: 10% KO/TKO, 30% submission, 30% decisions. Szalay's record stands at 9-1 with a high decision rate (70%) and fewer finishes via KO or submission, indicating a tendency for longer fights. Both fighters have strong striking and grappling skills but Szalay's higher decision percentage suggests more consistent control in fights.
- No record of previous matchups between Chang Min Yoon and Sebastian Szalay, making this their first direct encounter.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the fight.
- The fight is held in Shanghai, a neutral venue for both South Korean Chang Min Yoon and Australian Sebastian Szalay. The event is part of the Road to UFC series, heightening motivation as both seek UFC contracts.
- Both athletes are highly motivated to secure UFC contracts, enhancing performance incentives. Sebastien Szalay's unbeaten recent streak (9-1) and Yoon's resilience after two losses show strong competitive drive.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Chang Min Yoon: 200, Sebastian Szalay: -260 | Sebastian Szalay | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Chang Min Yoon: +1.5, Sebastian Szalay: -1.5 | Sebastian Szalay to cover -1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over: 1.85, Under: 1.95 | Fight to go Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sebastian Szalay -14% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Sebastian Szalay at -14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Sebastian Szalay is favored to win due to his strong recent form, higher decision wins, and current betting odds indicating market confidence. However, Chang Min Yoon's balanced finishing ability and experience pose a significant threat, making the fight competitive.
Predicted Score: Sebastian Szalay wins by decision (3 rounds)