Match Analysis: SE Missouri St Redhawks vs St. Thomas (MN) Tommies – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 15, 2025
- Time: 8:00 PM UTC
- Location: Show Me Center, Cape Girardeau, MO
Game Overview
St. Thomas (MN) Tommies travel to Cape Girardeau as preseason Summit League favorites to face the Southeast Missouri State Redhawks. St. Thomas enters with a 2-2 record after a dominant 80-61 win over Green Bay where they scored 50 first-half points. Southeast Missouri State sits at 1-2 but has shown offensive firepower with consecutive games scoring 84+ points. This matchup features a significant rest disadvantage factor that could play a role in the outcome.
Key Factors to Consider
- St. Thomas is 22-8 SU in their last 30 games but only 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games, showing concerning recent form despite strong win-loss record. Southeast Missouri State has won six consecutive home games against non-AP-ranked opponents and has scored 84+ points in back-to-back games, indicating offensive momentum. However, SEMO is currently on a 3-game losing streak overall with a 0-2 record in their last 5 games.
- No recent head-to-head history provided in available data. This appears to be a non-conference matchup with teams from different conferences.
- No injury information available in provided data.
- St. Thomas has lost each of its last three games when playing with a rest disadvantage, which may apply here. Southeast Missouri State has lost 13 of its last 14 day games against non-conference opponents, creating conflicting trends. The game time (3:00 PM EST Saturday) qualifies as a day game, which favors St. Thomas' day-game record of 6-1 in their last 7.
- St. Thomas is positioned as the preseason conference favorite, carrying higher expectations. Southeast Missouri State has momentum at home but faces a tougher road matchup against Iowa on Tuesday, potentially affecting preparation intensity.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | ST: -166 | SEMO: +140 | St. Thomas (MN) Tommies | ★★★☆☆ 62% |
| Spread | ST: -2.5 (-118) | SEMO: +2.5 (-102) | St. Thomas (MN) -2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 59% |
| Over/under | Over 152.5 (-115) | Under 152.5 (-105) | Under 152.5 | ★★★☆☆ 56% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | St. Thomas (MN) Tommies -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 152.5 5% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 152.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.7% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
St. Thomas (MN) Tommies will cover the spread and win this matchup, though it will be closer than the current -2.5 line suggests. The Tommies' superior overall record, strong day-game performance, and status as conference favorites outweigh Southeast Missouri State's impressive home court record. However, SEMO's recent offensive firepower and home-court advantage present value on the spread.
Predicted Score: St. Thomas (MN) 74 – Southeast Missouri State 70