Match Analysis: Cal Poly Mustangs vs SE Missouri St Redhawks – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 25, 2025
- Time: 1:00 AM UTC
- Location: J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome, Flagstaff, AZ
Game Overview
The Cal Poly Mustangs (3-3) host the SE Missouri State Redhawks (1-4) in a non-conference NCAA basketball matchup. Cal Poly is returning home after a 92-85 away win against Utah, while SE Missouri State continues to struggle with a 1-4 record and has lost all three of its road games this season. This game will be broadcast on ESPN+.
Key Factors to Consider
- SE Missouri State enters with significant struggles: 1-4 record with a -5.3 point differential, 0-4 ATS record, averaging 66 PPG with poor offensive efficiency. They're turning the ball over 12.4 times per game and committing 20.6 fouls nightly. Defensively, they allow 81.0 PPG (307th in D1) and surrender 50.2% from the field. Cal Poly shows stronger form: 3-3 record with a positive point differential, 2-4 ATS, and scoring 81.8 PPG. They connect on 42.5% from the floor (289th) and 36% from three-point range (118th). Cal Poly shoots 68% from free throw while SE Missouri makes only 57.1% at the charity stripe.
- No prior head-to-head history provided in available data. This is a non-conference matchup between teams from different conferences (Cal Poly from Big West, SE Missouri State independent).
- No injury information available in the provided search results.
- The game is played at a neutral court (Flagstaff, AZ) rather than Cal Poly's home venue, which somewhat mitigates their home court advantage. However, Cal Poly is 1-0 at home this season while SE Missouri State is 0-3 on the road. SE Missouri State has lost all six of its last non-conference games, establishing a concerning trend.
- Cal Poly is motivated by building momentum following their road win against Utah and maintaining their home success. SE Missouri State desperately needs a win to avoid falling further below .500 and to reverse their troubling road record.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cal Poly -152 / SE Missouri State +124 | Cal Poly Mustangs | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Cal Poly -2.5 (-112) / SE Missouri State +2.5 (-108) | Cal Poly -2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 168.5 (-112) / Under 168.5 (-112) | Over 168.5 | ★★★☆☆ 64% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cal Poly Mustangs -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 168.5 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 168.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Cal Poly Mustangs are favored to win this matchup. Multiple analytical indicators support this: Cal Poly's superior record, positive point differential, better shooting percentages, and home court advantage (even in a neutral city). SE Missouri State's 1-4 record combined with their 0-3 road record and 0-6 record against non-conference opponents presents significant red flags. Cal Poly's recent momentum and 3-3 record with 2-4 ATS coverage suggests better value than the struggling Redhawks. The Mustangs should control the game, particularly in the first half where SE Missouri State has struggled in four of their last five neutral venue games.
Predicted Score: Cal Poly 78, SE Missouri State 75