Match Analysis: Sarek Shields vs Nick Meck – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-01
• Time: 10:30 PM UTC
• Location: PFL World Tournament 8

Game Overview

Welterweight bout between Sarek Shields and Nick Meck at PFL World Tournament 8. Both fighters are coming off wins in recent PFL events, with Shields holding a 7-2 career record and Meck showing strong form in 2025.

Key Factors to Consider

• Sarek Shields holds a 7-2 professional MMA record with a balanced finishing ability: 50% decisions and 50% submissions, indicating versatility. Nick Meck has shown consistent wins in 2025 tournaments, winning in the semifinals on June 11 and demonstrating good momentum.
• No clear direct previous encounter records are available, but both fighters have met recently within the tournament circuit, increasing familiarity. Shields appears slightly favored based on stylistic matchups and previous results.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the bout, suggesting both are at full health.
• Fight taking place in a high-stakes PFL semifinal environment which may elevate competitive intensity. Both fighters motivated by tournament progression and prize incentives.
• Both fighters highly motivated; Shields seeking to capitalize on home crowd advantage and momentum from recent submission wins; Meck motivated by recent victories and aim to solidify place in the tournament finals.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Sarek Shields -141, Nick Meck +121	Sarek Shields	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Spread (-1.5 Sarek Shields) approx -150, (+1.5 Nick Meck) approx +130	Sarek Shields -1.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds -170, Under 2.5 rounds +140	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Sarek Shields 1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 39%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 39% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 28% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Sarek Shields to win via decision

Predicted Score: Sarek Shields wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Joseph Luciano vs Sarek Shields – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-12
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: Nashville Municipal Auditorium

Game Overview

Joseph Luciano and Sarek Shields will face off in a welterweight alternate bout during the 2025 PFL World Tournament 5 Semifinals. Luciano, with a 10-3 record, is favored against Shields, who holds a 6-2 record.

Key Factors to Consider

• Luciano has a more extensive experience, with 13 fights under his belt compared to Shields' 8. Luciano's opponents have generally been more experienced, which could be an advantage.
• This is the first time these fighters will meet, so there is no prior head-to-head data.
• No recent injuries have been reported for either fighter.
• The match is part of a high-stakes tournament, and both fighters will be highly motivated. However, Luciano's experience in larger tournaments might give him an edge.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, but Luciano's experience in high-pressure situations could be a deciding factor.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Joseph Luciano: -290, Sarek Shields: 230	Joseph Luciano	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Joseph Luciano -99%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Joseph Luciano is predicted to win based on his experience and past performances.

Predicted Score: N/A