Match Analysis: Santos vs Sao Paulo – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-21
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estádio Urbano Caldeira
Game Overview
This Brazil Campeonato Série A match features Santos hosting São Paulo at Estádio Urbano Caldeira. Santos currently ranks 16th in the league while São Paulo is in 7th, reflecting a gap in recent team form and league standings. Historically, Santos holds a slight edge over São Paulo in head-to-head record, with a somewhat balanced recent form between the two.
Key Factors to Consider
- São Paulo has a better recent form and higher league standing (7th with 35 points) compared to Santos (16th with 23 points). Santos' form is mixed with more losses recently, while São Paulo's last games include some wins and draws, indicating more stability.
- In their historical head-to-head encounters, Santos has 21 wins, São Paulo 18 wins, and 10 draws out of 49 matches. Recent meetings have been balanced with a 2-2-1 split in the last 5 matches and both teams showed competitiveness.
- No specific injury data is currently available for this match; this is a limitation in the live context.
- The game is played at Santos' home ground, Estádio Urbano Caldeira, which can provide home advantage. Weather or other external conditions are not detailed in the current data.
- São Paulo, aiming to consolidate a higher league position, may have stronger motivation given their pursuit of points to secure top standings, whereas Santos might be motivated to avoid relegation struggles given their lower standing.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Santos: 1.16, São Paulo: 2.65, Draw: 2.05 | Santos win | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Santos -0.25: -118, São Paulo +25: -102 | Santos -0.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2: -105, Under 2: -115 | Under 2 goals | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Santos 19% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2 3% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Santos at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 16.2% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
São Paulo is favored to win due to better recent form, higher league ranking, and solid head-to-head competitiveness, but the match could be close due to Santos' historical resilience at home.
Predicted Score: 1-0