Match Analysis: Santa Clara vs Sporting Lisbon – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: Estadio de São Miguel
Game Overview
Santa Clara, struggling in recent weeks, hosts title-contending Sporting Lisbon, who are in strong domestic and European form. Sporting are clear favorites, but Santa Clara have historically performed better at home and could frustrate the visitors.
Key Factors to Consider
- Santa Clara lost 1-0 to Gil Vicente in their last match, demonstrating continued struggles to convert chances. They dominated possession (62%) but only managed 4 shots on target, indicative of offensive inefficiency[2]. Sporting CP are in excellent domestic form, riding a five-game road winning streak in the league, and recently drew 1-1 away to Juventus in the Champions League, underscoring their readiness for tough matches[2].
- Historically, Sporting have dominated this fixture: 15 matches played, 13 Sporting wins, 2 Santa Clara wins, 0 draws. Average goals: 2.6 per game, with more action in the second half[1]. The last meeting between these teams in April 2025 ended 0-1 in favor of Sporting, with Santa Clara having only 36% possession and 1 shot on target[1].
- No significant injury reports for either side based on available data.
- No major external factors reported; normal conditions expected.
- Santa Clara are desperate for points at home to avoid a relegation battle, while Sporting are motivated to keep pace at the top of the table.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Santa Clara: +700, Sporting Lisbon: -250, Draw: +340 | Sporting Lisbon | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Santa Clara +1.25 (-125), Sporting Lisbon -1.25 (+105) | Santa Clara +1.25 | ★★★☆☆ 63% |
| Over/under | Over 2.25 (-125), Under 2.25 (+105) | Under 2.25 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sporting Lisbon 1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.25 19% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.25 at 19% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 18% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Sporting Lisbon will control possession and create more chances, but Santa Clara will defend resolutely, leading to a lower-scoring game than recent H2H encounters. Sporting are likely to win, but a heavy victory is far from certain.
Predicted Score: 0-1