Match Analysis: Chicago Cubs vs San Diego Padres – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-02
- Time: 9:08 PM UTC
- Location: Wrigley Field, Chicago
Game Overview
The decisive Game 3 of the NL Wild Card series features the Chicago Cubs hosting the San Diego Padres. The series is tied 1-1, with both teams fighting to advance in the postseason.
Key Factors to Consider
- The Cubs finished the regular season 92-70 with strong home form (50-31). The Padres ended 90-72 but had a losing 38-43 road record. The Cubs recently won their last home game 3-0 against the Padres, showing solid pitching and defense.
- In head-to-head postseason matchups this series, both teams are 1-1. San Diego has a slight recent edge with a 4-2 SU record vs. Chicago over their last six encounters; however, Cubs’ dominance at home and game 2 shutout give them momentum.
- No critical injuries reported for either team that could materially affect starting lineups or pitching rotations in this elimination game.
- Wrigley Field’s familiar environment and home crowd advantage favor the Cubs. Weather is expected to be neutral without adverse effects on pitching or hitting.
- High motivation on both sides given the elimination stakes. Cubs have the home crowd and chance to advance with a strong pitching performance. Padres need to win on the road to extend the series, adding pressure but also urgency.
Odds and Predictions
Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
---|---|---|---|
Moneyline | Chicago Cubs -116, San Diego Padres -105 | Chicago Cubs | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Spread | Chicago Cubs +1.5 -202, San Diego Padres -1.5 +164 | Chicago Cubs +1.5 | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Over/under | Over 7.5 -112, Under 7.5 -108 | Under 7.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market | EV Pick |
---|---|
Moneyline | Chicago Cubs 6% |
Spread | N/A |
Over/Under | Under 7.5 31% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 7.5 at 31% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 33.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Chicago Cubs to win moneyline, cover the +1.5 spread, and the game to go under 7.5 runs
Predicted Score: Chicago Cubs 3, San Diego Padres 1