Match Analysis: Iuri Fernandes vs Samuele Pugliese – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-14
- Time: 1:00 PM UTC
- Location: GLORY 100 (Kickboxing event, but odds available as MMA)
Game Overview
Heavyweight contest between rising prospect Iuri Fernandes (9-1, 3 KO) and experienced Samuele Pugliese (14-2, 5 KO). The fight is technically a kickboxing reserve bout for GLORY 100, but available odds from bookmakers (e.g., Parimatch) list it as MMA. Both fighters are seeking to impress and potentially secure a spot in the main tournament.
Key Factors to Consider
- Fernandes is an up-and-comer with a recent strong record and fewer pro fights. Pugliese is more seasoned with more wins and a higher KO/top level experience. Both have low loss counts.
- No prior head-to-head history between Fernandes and Pugliese.
- No reported injuries for either fighter as of event previews.
- Event is a high-stakes tournament reserve, which may add pressure. Bookmakers offer MMA odds, but official event is kickboxing, so style adjustment may be needed. No significant external factors otherwise.
- Both motivated to make a statement and potentially earn a tournament spot. Reserve fighters often fight aggressively for visibility.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fernandes: +140 (2.40), Pugliese: -180 (1.55) | Samuele Pugliese | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Fernandes +2.5 (-120), Pugliese -2.5 (+100) | Fernandes +2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds (-110), Under 1.5 rounds (-110) | Over 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 100% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Samuele Pugliese is favored due to experience and more finishes, but Fernandes is a dangerous rising prospect. Expect a closely contested fight with potential for a late stoppage or decision win for the more experienced Pugliese.
Predicted Score: Samuele Pugliese wins by decision or late stoppage, though Fernandes could make it competitive. Predicted score: Pugliese by unanimous decision (if not stopped).