Match Analysis: Chasen Blair vs Samuel Sanches – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-10
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, USA
Game Overview
Chasen Blair is seeking a UFC contract on Dana White's Contender Series for the second time, facing the rising Brazilian prospect Samuel Sanches, who boasts a 10-1 record with powerful striking and improving takedown defense. The match promises a clash between Blair's grappling skills and Sanches' explosive knockout power and speed.
Key Factors to Consider
- Blair has strong grappling credentials with multiple submission wins but limited knockout power, while Sanches has six knockouts in his ten wins and excels in striking and quick finishes. Blair recently went 5-0 with eight finishes (seven KOs, one submission), but Sanches' knockout streak and striking evolution give him a momentum edge.
- This is their first encounter, making it a fresh matchup with no head-to-head history influencing the fight dynamics.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the match, suggesting both enter at full health.
- The fight takes place at the UFC Apex, where Blair has prior experience, possibly giving him a slight comfort advantage. The event is broadcast on ESPN+ in the USA, contributing to heightened competitive pressure.
- Blair is motivated by the chance to secure a UFC contract on his second attempt, while Sanches aims to extend his momentum and establish himself as a top lightweight prospect at only 22 years old.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Chasen Blair: -105, Samuel Sanches: -115 | Samuel Sanches | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Over/under | over_1.5_rounds: -128, under_1.5_rounds: 108 | Under 1.5 rounds (early finish expected) | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Chasen Blair -4% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 35% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 35% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.6% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Samuel Sanches is favored to win, leveraging his superior striking speed, power, and improved takedown defense to potentially finish Blair inside two rounds.
Predicted Score: Samuel Sanches wins by KO/TKO in Round 2