Match Analysis: Sam Patterson vs Trey Waters – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 5:45 PM UTC
• Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

Sam Patterson and Trey Waters face off in the Welterweight division at UFC Paris. Patterson carries a strong record of 13-2-1 with notable reach advantage and efficient striking defense, while Waters is an aggressive striker with a 9-1 record known for his pressure and output.

Key Factors to Consider

• Patterson has a 13-2-1 record, showcasing consistency with a balanced striking output (3.17 significant strikes/min, 41% accuracy) and strong defense (48% striking defense). Waters is 9-1, with higher striking volume (6.43 significant strikes/min, 44% accuracy) but absorbs more strikes (5.61/min) despite a better defense rate (56%).
• They have no prior head-to-head matchups, so direct comparative historic performance is unavailable.
• No reported injuries affecting either fighter prior to the fight.
• The fight takes place at a major UFC event in Paris, which may somewhat favor Patterson given his higher experience in big cards, but both fighters are motivated to solidify their standings.
• Patterson seeks to maintain momentum and capitalize on his experience; Waters aims to prove himself with an upset win on a prominent stage.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Sam Patterson: -185, Trey Waters: +154	Sam Patterson	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Sam Patterson -3.5: -120, Trey Waters +3.5: -110	Sam Patterson -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 1.5: -188, Under 1.5: +145	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Sam Patterson -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 47%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 47% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 32.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Sam Patterson to win via moneyline

Predicted Score: Sam Patterson wins by decision or late stoppage within 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Danny Barlow vs Sam Patterson – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: March 1, 2025
• Time: 12:15 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Game Overview

Danny Barlow and Sam Patterson will face off in a welterweight bout at UFC Fight Night 253. Barlow, undefeated with a 9-0 record, is known for his powerful striking, while Patterson boasts a 12-2-1 record with strong grappling skills.

Key Factors to Consider

• Danny Barlow has a strong striking game with five knockouts, while Sam Patterson excels in grappling, having recently submitted Kiefer Crosbie. Barlow's striking accuracy is higher at 50%, compared to Patterson's 37%.
• There is no prior head-to-head match between Danny Barlow and Sam Patterson, making this their first encounter.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight is part of the undercard at UFC Fight Night 253, which may influence crowd energy and fighter motivation.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to win, with Barlow aiming to maintain his undefeated streak and Patterson seeking to upset the favorite.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-300 for Danny Barlow, +240 for Sam Patterson	Danny Barlow	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	-3.5 for Danny Barlow at -225, +3.5 for Sam Patterson at 165	Danny Barlow -3.5	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 1.5 at 100, Under 1.5 at -130	Over 1.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Danny Barlow is likely to win due to his strong striking skills.

Predicted Score: Decision or late-round stoppage in favor of Danny Barlow.

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Andrea Lee vs. J.J. Aldrich Prediction	Over 2.5	2.5	★★★★☆ 80% (80%)
Danny Barlow vs. Sam Patterson Prediction	Danny Barlow Win	-300	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)
Austen Lane vs. Mario Pinto Prediction	Mario Pinto Win	-600	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: -168

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $31.89