Match Analysis: Sam Patterson vs Trey Waters – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 5:45 PM UTC
• Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

An exciting UFC welterweight bout between Sam Patterson (13-2-1) and Trey Waters (9-1) at UFC Paris. Both orthodox fighters are well matched in weight at 170 lbs with Patterson standing 6'3" and Waters 6'5". Patterson has a solid striking accuracy at 41% with 3.17 significant strikes landed per minute, while Waters is more aggressive with 6.43 strikes per minute at 44% accuracy. Patterson's strike defense is 48%, while Waters defends 56%. The fight is anticipated to be competitive with both fighters possessing different strengths in striking volume and defense.

Key Factors to Consider

• Sam Patterson has a strong recent record and notable finishing ability, coming off a first-round KO win in March 2025. Trey Waters also has an impressive record with only one loss, including a unanimous decision win over Billy Goff in May 2024. Patterson's ability to absorb fewer strikes per minute (3.6 vs. Waters' 5.61) could be a key advantage.
• No previous head-to-head encounters between Sam Patterson and Trey Waters have been recorded.
• No current injury reports or issues affecting either fighter have been noted in the lead-up to the match.
• The match takes place at the Accor Arena in Paris, France, as part of a stacked UFC Fight Night event that includes multiple rising prospects and seasoned veterans, creating an energetic atmosphere favorable for a high-tempo fight.
• Both fighters aim to advance their UFC careers strongly; Patterson looks to extend a winning streak while Waters remains undefeated except for one loss, motivated to maintain momentum and secure a higher standing in the welterweight division.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Sam Patterson: -185, Trey Waters: 154	Sam Patterson to win	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Sam Patterson: -3.5 @ -120, Trey Waters: +3.5 @ -110	Sam Patterson to cover the -3.5 spread	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: -188, Under 1.5 rounds: 145	Over 1.5 rounds (fight to last beyond first or early second round)	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Sam Patterson -1%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 7%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Sam Patterson edges a competitive fight, leveraging better strike defense and resilience to win by decision or late finish with a slightly higher probability due to his finishing capability and defensive stats.

Predicted Score: Decision win for Sam Patterson after completing 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Danny Barlow vs Sam Patterson – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: March 1, 2025
• Time: 12:15 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex in Las Vegas

Game Overview

Danny Barlow and Sam Patterson will face off in a welterweight bout at UFC Fight Night 253. Barlow, undefeated with a 9-0 record, is known for his powerful striking, while Patterson boasts a 12-2-1 record with strong grappling skills.

Key Factors to Consider

• Danny Barlow has a strong striking game with five knockouts, while Sam Patterson excels in grappling, having recently submitted Kiefer Crosbie. Barlow's striking accuracy is higher at 50%, compared to Patterson's 37%.
• There is no prior head-to-head match between Danny Barlow and Sam Patterson, making this their first encounter.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight is part of the undercard at UFC Fight Night 253, which may influence crowd energy and fighter motivation.
• Both fighters are highly motivated to win, with Barlow aiming to maintain his undefeated streak and Patterson seeking to upset the favorite.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-300 for Danny Barlow, +240 for Sam Patterson	Danny Barlow	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	-3.5 for Danny Barlow at -225, +3.5 for Sam Patterson at 165	Danny Barlow -3.5	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 1.5 at 100, Under 1.5 at -130	Over 1.5	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Danny Barlow is likely to win due to his strong striking skills.

Predicted Score: Decision or late-round stoppage in favor of Danny Barlow.

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Andrea Lee vs. J.J. Aldrich Prediction	Over 2.5	2.5	★★★★☆ 80% (80%)
Danny Barlow vs. Sam Patterson Prediction	Danny Barlow Win	-300	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)
Austen Lane vs. Mario Pinto Prediction	Mario Pinto Win	-600	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: -168

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $31.89