Match Analysis: Abdullah Mason vs Sam Noakes – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: ANB Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Game Overview
The WBO vacant lightweight title bout features two undefeated fighters: Abdullah Mason (19-0, 17 KOs) and Sam Noakes (17-0, 15 KOs). The match is set for 12 rounds with a 135-pound weight limit.
Key Factors to Consider
- Both fighters come undefeated with Mason having a slight edge in knockouts percentage (89% vs. Noakes' 88%). Mason is younger (21) but less experienced in ranking, while Noakes (28) carries the advantage in The Ring rankings and physical maturity.
- No prior head-to-head meeting. Mason has a one-inch height advantage and fights southpaw against orthodox Noakes, which can create tactical dynamics.
- No reported injuries affecting either fighter going into the bout.
- The fight takes place in Riyadh with promotion cooperation between Mason's and Noakes' camps likely ensuring smooth event flow. The championship status adds motivation with WBO title on the line.
- Both fighters are motivated: Mason aiming to cement himself as a rising star after a recent TKO victory, and Noakes looking to leverage his experience and physical strength to capture the WBO lightweight title.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Abdullah Mason: -500, Sam Noakes: 350 | Abdullah Mason | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Abdullah Mason -1.5 rounds: -110, Sam Noakes +1.5 rounds: -110 | Abdullah Mason -1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Over/under | Over 9.5 rounds: -110, Under 9.5 rounds: -120 | Under 9.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Abdullah Mason -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 9.5 10% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 9.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Abdullah Mason is favored to win by decision or KO due to his youth, power, and recent form. Community predictions lean heavily towards Mason with approximately 78% combined confidence for his victory. Noakes has a smaller chance to win, mostly by decision, with KO seen as less likely but possible.
Predicted Score: Abdullah Mason wins by 10-round decision or stoppage in round 8