Match Analysis: Giovanni Fernandez vs Sam Kelly – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 3:00 PM UTC
• Location: Cage Warriors 193, Newcastle

Game Overview

The bantamweight bout between Giovanni Fernandez and Sam Kelly is a 3-round main card fight part of Cage Warriors 193. Fernandez (6-4) exhibits a varied finish profile with submissions being his strength, while Kelly (3-3) shows a more balanced but less decisive record. Kelly is favored on the moneyline at -230, with Fernandez as the underdog at +160.

Key Factors to Consider

• Fernandez is in solid recent form with 6 wins mainly via submission (40%) and has a higher activity in finishes. Kelly has a more mixed record at 3-3 and has lost 3 of his last 6, showing inconsistency.
• No recorded previous matchups between Fernandez and Kelly, making this fight a true test of styles without direct prior insight.
• No current injuries reported for either fighter, indicating both are likely at full capacity.
• The fight is held in Newcastle under Cage Warriors promotion, with no significant external conditions or travel disadvantages reported for either fighter.
• Fernandez appears motivated to solidify his standing through impressive finishes, whereas Kelly looks to rebound from recent inconsistent performances.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Giovanni Fernandez: +160, Sam Kelly: -230	Sam Kelly	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Kelly -1.5 rounds: -140, Fernandez +1.5 rounds: +120	Sam Kelly -1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Sam Kelly -14%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Sam Kelly at -14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Sam Kelly to win via decision

Predicted Score: Sam Kelly wins by unanimous decision, 30-27

Match Analysis: Sam Kelly vs Richard Kallos – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-15
• Time: 2:00 PM UTC
• Location: BEC Arena, Manchester

Game Overview

Sam Kelly faces Richard Kallos in a bantamweight bout at Cage Warriors 185. Kelly is favored, with odds reflecting his recent performances and experience in the Cage Warriors promotion.

Key Factors to Consider

• Sam Kelly has a mixed record, with recent losses to Alessandro Giordano and Gianluca Scottoli. However, he has shown strong finishing skills with quick wins against Pav Singh Sahota and Jack Eglin. Richard Kallos has less documented experience but is lighter, weighing in at 133.4 lbs compared to Kelly's 135.7 lbs.
• There is no recorded head-to-head match between Sam Kelly and Richard Kallos, making this their first encounter.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight takes place in Manchester, which might favor Kelly due to home crowd support. However, Kallos's lighter weight could provide an advantage in terms of agility.
• Both fighters are motivated to win, but Kelly might have more pressure as the favorite and competing in front of a home crowd.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Richard Kallos: 160, Sam Kelly: -210	Sam Kelly	★★★★☆ 70%

Predicted Outcome

Sam Kelly is likely to win due to his experience and recent knockout victories.

Predicted Score: Decision or early stoppage in favor of Sam Kelly.