Match Analysis: Idaho State Bengals vs Sam Houston St Bearkats – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-26
- Time: 11:30 PM UTC
- Location: Idaho Central Arena, Boise
Game Overview
The Idaho State Bengals (3-3) host the Sam Houston St Bearkats (3-2) at Idaho Central Arena. Sam Houston is favored despite playing on the road. The Bengals have struggled overall with a 1-3 record in their last 5 games but have been effective against the spread, especially on the road. The Bearkats have a slightly better overall record, and the betting market currently favors them on the moneyline and spread.
Key Factors to Consider
- Idaho State Bengals have a 3-3 record with recent struggles (1-3 in last five) but strong ATS (4-0 in last five against-the-spread) and especially on the road (4-0 ATS). Sam Houston Bearkats hold a 3-2 record with no detailed recent form but are favored straight-up and on the spread.
- No recent detailed direct comparisons available, but Idaho State's strong ATS record on the road suggests competitiveness. Public betting shown 100% on Idaho State ATS but moneyline odds favor Sam Houston.
- No specific injury reports found for either team for the matchup, suggesting full-strength lineups are likely.
- Game is at Idaho State's home venue, potentially influencing the Bengals' strong ATS road performance to contend. Betting public heavily leans Idaho State on spread, but sharp money favors Sam Houston on moneyline.
- Idaho State may be motivated to defend home court and improve on their recent losses. Sam Houston looks to extend winning momentum and validate their favored status on the road.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Idaho State Bengals: +130, Sam Houston St Bearkats: -155 | Sam Houston St Bearkats | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Spread | Idaho State Bengals: +2.5 at -105, Sam Houston St Bearkats: -2.5 at -115 | Sam Houston St Bearkats -2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 143.5: -115, Under 143.5: -105 | Under 143.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sam Houston St Bearkats -5% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 143.5 7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 143.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Sam Houston St Bearkats win, covering the -2.5 spread with a moderately high confidence, capitalizing on slightly better overall record, sharper moneyline odds, and betting market support.
Predicted Score: Sam Houston St Bearkats 74 – Idaho State Bengals 70