Match Analysis: Nick Ball vs Sam Goodman – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-16
- Time: 3:00 PM UTC
- Location: Kingdom Arena, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
Game Overview
Nick Ball defends his WBA featherweight title against undefeated Australian Sam Goodman as part of a major boxing event in Riyadh. Ball is a heavy favorite given his experience, punching power, and previous title defenses, while Goodman seeks his first world title win, bringing a strong but less proven style.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nick Ball (22-0-1, 13 KOs) has demonstrated dominance with a high knockout rate and multiple successful title defenses, including stoppages in his recent fights. Sam Goodman (20-0, 8 KOs) is unbeaten but newer to this top level, with many wins by decision and less finishing power.
- This will be their first professional meeting; no prior head-to-head bout exists, so analysis relies on style and records.
- No significant current injuries reported for either fighter. Notably, Goodman was previously sidelined by a sparring cut that delayed a world title shot, but appears fully ready.
- The fight takes place in Saudi Arabia's Kingdom Arena on a high-profile card. Ball prepared by sparring with the fighter who previously caused Goodman's cut, indicating strategic readiness. The desert venue continues to gain prominence for world-class boxing events.
- Ball aims to complete a third consecutive WBA featherweight title defense and reinforce his dominance. Goodman is motivated to capture his first world title against a favored champion, eager to prove himself on a big stage.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nick Ball: -450, Sam Goodman: 325 | Nick Ball Win | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Nick Ball: -2.5, Sam Goodman: +2.5 | Nick Ball -2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 80% |
| Over/under | Over 10.5: -130, Under 10.5: 100 | Under 10.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nick Ball -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 10.5 20% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 10.5 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nick Ball is expected to retain his title by technical knockout (TKO) in the middle to late rounds due to superior power, experience, and effective pressure fighting. Goodman's lesser head movement and lower knockout power put him at a significant disadvantage in this matchup.
Predicted Score: Nick Ball wins by TKO in round 9