Match Analysis: Saimon Oliveira vs Luan Lacerda – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: October 11, 2025
• Time: 2:00 PM UTC
• Location: Farmasi Arena, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Game Overview

This bantamweight bout features Luan Lacerda, a 32-year-old orthodox fighter with a 12-3 record, against Saimon Oliveira, a 34-year-old with an 18-6 record. Both fighters are on losing streaks, but Lacerda has a higher significant strike rate and is favored to win.

Key Factors to Consider

• Luan Lacerda has a higher significant strike rate (4.52 per minute) compared to Saimon Oliveira (2.67 per minute). However, Oliveira has a slightly better defense against significant strikes.
• There is no previous head-to-head matchup between these two fighters.
• No significant injury reports for either fighter.
• The fight is in Brazil, which could favor Oliveira due to home crowd support.
• Both fighters are motivated to break their losing streaks.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Luan Lacerda: -250, Saimon Oliveira: +205	Luan Lacerda	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Luan Lacerda: -3.5 -180, Saimon Oliveira: +3.5 130	Luan Lacerda to win by decision or TKO	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 1.5 Rounds: -145, Under 1.5 Rounds: +114	Over 1.5 Rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Luan Lacerda -9%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 18%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 26.5% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Luan Lacerda is predicted to win due to his higher striking output and potential for takedowns.

Predicted Score: Decision or late TKO for Luan Lacerda

Match Analysis: David Martinez vs Saimon Oliveira – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: Saturday, March 29, 2025
• Time: 11:45 PM UTC
• Location: Arena CDMX in Mexico City

Game Overview

David Martinez, the rising Mexican star known as 'Black Spartan,' faces off against Brazil's Saimon Oliveira in a Bantamweight matchup at UFC on ESPN 64. Martinez boasts an impressive record with 11 wins and only one loss, having recently secured a unanimous decision victory. Oliveira, with 18 wins and 5 losses, is coming off a knockout defeat. Both fighters have a history of fights ending inside the distance.

Key Factors to Consider

• Martinez is a heavy hitter with 9 wins by knockout. He averages 5.27 significant strikes per minute with a 49% striking accuracy. Oliveira has a more balanced skillset but has struggled in his recent UFC outings, averaging 2.82 significant strikes per minute with a 41% accuracy.
• There is no prior head-to-head matchup between Martinez and Oliveira. However, Martinez's aggressive striking style could challenge Oliveira's grappling-focused approach.
• No reported injuries affecting the fighters heading into this bout.
• The fight takes place in Mexico City, which could favor Martinez due to the home crowd support. However, Oliveira's international experience could mitigate this advantage.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Martinez looking to build on his success and Oliveira seeking redemption after a recent loss.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-410 for Martinez, +320 for Oliveira	Martinez	★★★★☆ 80%
Spread	-3.5 for Martinez -175, +3.5 for Oliveira +125	Martinez (-3.5)	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over_under	Over 2.5 -125, Under 2.5 -105	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 55%

Predicted Outcome

David Martinez is favored to win due to his superior striking and recent form.

Predicted Score: Given the nature of MMA fights, predicting an exact score is not applicable.