Match Analysis: Said Nurmagomedov vs Bryce Mitchell – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: July 26, 2025
- Time: 7:00 PM UTC
- Location: Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi
Game Overview
Bryce Mitchell (17-4-0) moves down to bantamweight for the first time, facing Said Nurmagomedov (18-4-0), who is coming off a decision loss. Mitchell is favored slightly in the betting odds.
Key Factors to Consider
- Mitchell has been landing significant strikes at a rate of 2.44 per minute and defending 60% of them. Nurmagomedov, meanwhile, lands 3.38 significant strikes per minute and defends 56%.
- No previous head-to-head matchups.
- There are no reported significant injuries for either fighter at this time.
- The fight's location and timing of the event are unlikely to favor one fighter significantly.
- Both fighters are highly motivated, with Mitchell debuting in a new weight class and Nurmagomedov seeking redemption after a loss.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bryce Mitchell -140, Said Nurmagomedov 120 | Bryce Mitchell | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 -155, Under 2.5 125 | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bryce Mitchell 11% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 53% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 53% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 42.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bryce Mitchell is likely to win by decision or a closely contested fight.
Predicted Score: Bryce Mitchell wins by decision