Match Analysis: Rohan Polanco vs Fabian Maidana – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-04
• Time: 12:00 AM UTC
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas

Game Overview

Rohan Polanco (15-0, 10 KOs), a Dominican Olympian and rising welterweight, faces Fabian Maidana (24-3, 18 KOs), a durable Argentinian puncher and brother of former champion Marcos Maidana. Polanco enters with momentum from a dominant 2nd-round KO in February, while Maidana seeks redemption after a 2023 loss to Mario Barrios. The bout is scheduled for 10 rounds.

Key Factors to Consider

• Polanco: Undefeated with 66% KO rate; Maidana: 75% KO rate but lost in previous step-up bout.
• First meeting between the two fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• High-profile undercard to Inoue-Cardenas may motivate standout performances.
• Polanco aims to position himself for title contention; Maidana seeks career resurgence.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Polanco -5000, Maidana +1600	Polanco	★★★★★ 95%
Over/under	Over 6.5 -115, Under 6.5 -115	Over 6.5 rounds (-115)	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Rohan Polanco -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 6.5 3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 6.5 at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Polanco by mid-round KO due to superior speed, technical precision, and recent form.

Predicted Score: Polanco via TKO (Round 7-8)