Match Analysis: Lucas Bahdi vs Roger Gutierrez – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-23
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Caribe Royale Hotel, Orlando, Florida, US
Game Overview
Lucas Bahdi and Roger Gutierrez face off in a high-stakes WBA lightweight title eliminator scheduled for 10 rounds. Bahdi is undefeated at 19-0 with 15 KOs, riding a three-fight streak over previously unbeaten opponents. Gutierrez, a former WBA super featherweight world champion, holds a 29-6-1 record with 22 KOs and is on a two-fight winning streak. The fight has major implications for both men, potentially advancing the winner closer to a world title shot.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bahdi has demonstrated significant power and momentum with a 79% knockout rate and an undefeated record, while Gutierrez brings more professional experience and a slightly lower KO rate of 76%. Bahdi has fought fewer rounds (80) compared to Gutierrez's 163, indicating less ring time but more recent dominance.
- There is no recorded previous matchup between Bahdi and Gutierrez, making this their first encounter in the ring.
- No current injuries reported for either fighter leading into this bout.
- The fight takes place at Caribe Royale Hotel in Orlando, potentially a neutral venue with no home advantage. Both fighters share orthodox stances; Gutierrez has a height (5'9" vs. 5'8") and reach advantage of 2 inches.
- Bahdi aims to maintain his undefeated record and secure a world title shot, capitalizing on his recent rise. Gutierrez seeks to return to elite status and prove his experience can overcome the unbeaten contender.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Lucas Bahdi: -600, Roger Gutierrez: 400 | Lucas Bahdi | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Bahdi -2.5 rounds: -150, Gutierrez +2.5 rounds: 130 | Bahdi -2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 7.5 rounds: 110, Under 7.5 rounds: -130 | Under 7.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Lucas Bahdi -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Lucas Bahdi at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Lucas Bahdi is predicted to win by decision or late stoppage, leveraging his power, momentum, and recent form to overcome Gutierrez's experience and reach advantage.
Predicted Score: Lucas Bahdi wins by 8th round TKO or unanimous decision