Rodrigo Sezinando vs. Daniil Donchenko Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Rodrigo Sezinando vs Daniil Donchenko – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-09-13
  • Time: 7:00 PM UTC
  • Location: Las Vegas, Nevada, UFC Noche Event

Game Overview

This Welterweight prelims bout at UFC Noche pits Rodrigo Sezinando (8-1) against Daniil Donchenko (11-2), both rising prospects with strong finishes. Donchenko is the betting favorite at -218 with more UFC experience, while Sezinando offers value at +180.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Donchenko has been in 13 professional fights (11-2), showing solid form and finishing ability; Sezinando has fewer bouts (9 with 8-1) but also impressive recent form with a strong grappling base.
  • No prior head-to-head matchups, making this fight unpredictable and reliant on stylistic analysis.
  • No reported injuries for either fighter, both entering fight week healthy and prepared.
  • Fight occurs at a major UFC event in Las Vegas, favoring Donchenko who has previously fought on big cards; Sezinando may have slight jetlag or travel fatigue being Brazilian.
  • High stakes as this is the 'Ultimate Fighter' Season 33 Welterweight final, both fighters highly motivated to secure UFC contract and recognition.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Daniil Donchenko: -218, Rodrigo Sezinando: +180 Daniil Donchenko ★★★★☆ 72%
Spread Donchenko -1.5 rounds: +120, Sezinando +1.5 rounds: -140 Donchenko -1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under Over 1.5 rounds: -166, Under 1.5 rounds: +130 Under 1.5 rounds ★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Daniil Donchenko -5%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 1.5 38%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 38% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Pick Daniil Donchenko on the moneyline due to UFC experience and finishing ability; expect the fight to go under 1.5 rounds given both fighters' high finishing rates and early aggression.

Predicted Score: Donchenko wins by TKO in round 1


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