Match Analysis: Rodolfo Bellato vs Paul Craig – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: May 17, 2025
- Time: 1:15 AM UTC
- Location: Las Vegas
Game Overview
Rodolfo Bellato is favored to win against Paul Craig in their upcoming light heavyweight bout at UFC Fight Night. Bellato is looking to capitalize on Craig's 'big name' to elevate his career. Craig, known for his submissions, will face Bellato, who boasts a strong record.
Key Factors to Consider
- Rodolfo Bellato has a strong record of 12-2-0, while Paul Craig stands at 17-9-1. Bellato is likely to use his orthodox stance and significant reach disadvantage to his advantage through strategic fighting.
- This is their first matchup, making it difficult to predict based on past performances against each other.
- No significant injuries reported for either fighter.
- The fight is taking place in Las Vegas, which could affect fighters differently based on their experience in such environments.
- Bellato is highly motivated to win and boost his career, using Craig's name to gain more recognition.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | -535 (Bellato), 400 (Craig) | Bellato to win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | -3.5 (-370) for Bellato, +3.5 (250) for Craig | Bellato to win by more than 3.5 rounds not likely, as MMA fights are often decided early or go to decision. | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | 1.5 rounds (Over 100, Under -130) | Under 1.5 rounds, as both fighters are capable of ending the fight early. | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rodolfo Bellato 275% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 15% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Rodolfo Bellato at 275% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 68.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Rodolfo Bellato is predicted to win this fight based on his strong record and motivation to capitalize on Craig's name.
Predicted Score: Bellato to win by submission or TKO.