Match Analysis: Brad Tavares vs Robert Bryczek – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 5:15 PM UTC
- Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France
Game Overview
Brad Tavares, a veteran middleweight fighter with a 21-10 record, faces Robert Bryczek, an aggressive 17-6 fighter, at UFC Paris. Both fighters are orthodox, similar in height and weight, but Tavares brings more experience and precision striking, while Bryczek has shown finishing power especially with KO/TKOs.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tavares has a higher significant strikes per minute rate (3.42) and lands 43% accuracy versus Bryczek’s 2.13 and 24%, indicating superior striking efficiency. Defensively, Tavares concedes fewer significant strikes per minute than Bryczek (3.28 vs 4.47).
- No prior head-to-head matchups between Tavares and Bryczek.
- No current injury reports affecting either fighter.
- Fight takes place in Paris with no significant home advantage. Tavares appears motivated and well-prepared, with no external distractions noted.
- Tavares is motivated to maintain his status amid an aging phase and prove longevity, while Bryczek looks to make a statement stepping up in competition.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Brad Tavares: -225, Robert Bryczek: +185 | Brad Tavares | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Brad Tavares -3.5: +110, Robert Bryczek +3.5: -150 | Robert Bryczek +3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -215, Under 2.5 rounds: +165 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Brad Tavares -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 59% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 59% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Brad Tavares to win via decision
Predicted Score: Tavares wins via unanimous decision after 3 rounds