Match Analysis: Curtis Blaydes vs Rizvan Kuniev – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-21
- Time: 8:30 PM UTC
- Location: Baku Crystal Hall, Baku, Azerbaijan
Game Overview
The fight features Curtis Blaydes, the No. 5-ranked heavyweight in the UFC, facing off against debuting heavyweight Rizvan Kuniev. The match is part of UFC Fight Night: Hill vs Rountree Jr., scheduled to take place at Baku Crystal Hall. Blaydes is an experienced top-tier heavyweight known for his wrestling and ground control, while Kuniev enters with less UFC experience but high motivation, making his debut against a top-10 opponent.
Key Factors to Consider
- Curtis Blaydes has consistently demonstrated strong wrestling, ground control, and pressure fighting in the heavyweight division. Rizvan Kuniev, although less experienced at the UFC level, has shown promise with aggressive striking and submission skills in regional circuits. Blaydes' experience and ranking provide a performance edge.
- This will be the first meeting between Curtis Blaydes and Rizvan Kuniev, with no prior head-to-head record.
- No current injury reports affecting either fighter have been disclosed prior to the bout.
- The event location in Baku, Azerbaijan, might offer slight regional support for Kuniev, but Blaydes' experience in international venues mitigates any home advantage. The UFC appears eager to stage this fight, possibly to boost Kuniev's profile and test Blaydes against fresh competition.
- Blaydes aims to maintain or improve his top-5 heavyweight ranking, while Kuniev is highly motivated to make a strong UFC debut against an established opponent, possibly leading to a high-intensity performance.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Curtis Blaydes: -238, Rizvan Kuniev: 195 | Curtis Blaydes to win | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Curtis Blaydes: -3.5 -150, Rizvan Kuniev: +3.5 110 | Curtis Blaydes covers -3.5 spread | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.5 -105, Under: 2.5 -125 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Curtis Blaydes -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Curtis Blaydes is favored to win due to his experience, ranking, and wrestling dominance, with a high probability of controlling the fight on the ground. Kuniev’s debut and striking skills present an upset potential but are less favored against Blaydes' pressure and grappling.
Predicted Score: Curtis Blaydes wins via 3rd round TKO