Match Analysis: Andreas Gustafsson Berg vs Rinat Fakhretdinov – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-06
- Time: 4:45 PM UTC
- Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France
Game Overview
Andreas Gustafsson Berg faces Rinat Fakhretdinov in a welterweight bout at UFC Paris with both fighters showcasing strong skills. Gustafsson has a solid striking output with higher accuracy and better defense, while Fakhretdinov holds a superior professional record and a slight reach advantage.
Key Factors to Consider
- Gustafsson (12-2) strikes 5.83 significant strikes per minute at 76% accuracy, absorbing 2.79 strikes per minute. Fakhretdinov (23-1-1) lands 4.78 strikes at 52% accuracy, absorbing 3.58 significant strikes per minute but defends 53% of strikes.
- No previous head-to-head meetings found between Gustafsson and Fakhretdinov, making this their first encounter.
- No reported injuries or health concerns for either fighter leading into the bout.
- Fight takes place in Paris at Accor Arena, no notable external factors affecting performance. Both fighters fight orthodox and are similarly aged.
- Fakhretdinov looks to maintain near-perfect career record (23-1-1), while Gustafsson aims to solidify himself against an elite opponent. Both highly motivated, but Fakhretdinov’s record suggests a slight edge in career momentum.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -120, away: +100 | Andreas Gustafsson Berg | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | home: +150, away: -205 | Rinat Fakhretdinov +3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | over: -195, under: +150 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Andreas Gustafsson Berg 3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 75% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 75% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 50% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Bet on Andreas Gustafsson Berg to win on the moneyline. Expect a competitive fight, with Gustafsson’s precision striking and defense to edge out Fakhretdinov. Take the under 2.5 rounds considering strong defensive attributes and measured pace.
Predicted Score: Andreas Gustafsson Berg wins by decision in 3 rounds