Match Analysis: Nell Ariano vs Riku Urholin – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-21
- Time: 6:00 PM UTC
- Location: BEC Arena, Manchester, England
Game Overview
Nell Ariano faces Riku Urholin in a lightweight bout at Cage Warriors 197: Unplugged. Both fighters are ranked in the top 10 of the CWFC lightweight division. The fight is scheduled for three rounds and is a key matchup on the main card.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nell Ariano is undefeated with a 4-0 record, all wins by KO/TKO, showcasing strong striking and finishing ability. Riku Urholin has a 5-2 record, with 3 submission wins and 2 losses, indicating a well-rounded grappling game but less finishing power in recent bouts.
- No previous fights between Ariano and Urholin. This is their first encounter.
- No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the event.
- The fight takes place in Manchester, England, which is neutral territory for both fighters. The event is part of a high-profile double-header, increasing pressure and exposure.
- Ariano is looking to maintain his undefeated streak and climb the rankings. Urholin aims to rebound from recent losses and prove his top-tier status in the division.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nell Ariano: -750, Riku Urholin: 450 | Nell Ariano | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Over/under | over: 1.5 140, under: 1.5 -185 | Under | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nell Ariano -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 8% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 8% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Nell Ariano is favored due to his undefeated record and strong finishing ability. Riku Urholin's grappling skills could pose a challenge, but Ariano's striking and momentum give him the edge.
Predicted Score: Nell Ariano wins by KO/TKO in the second round