Match Analysis: Rhys McKee vs Axel Sola – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 7:45 PM UTC
• Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

Welterweight bout between undefeated UFC newcomer Axel Sola and UFC veteran Rhys McKee, who has struggled in the UFC with a 1-4 record. Sola is favored due to his unbeaten MMA record (10-0-1) and momentum entering the UFC, while McKee shows solid striking volume but poor defense and inconsistent UFC results.

Key Factors to Consider

• Sola boasts a perfect MMA record without any losses, suggesting strong form and confidence. McKee has shown striking volume (5.16 significant strikes/min with 44% accuracy) but also absorbs a high number of strikes (7.92/min) with below-average defense (46%), and has only one UFC victory in five bouts.
• No prior head-to-head matchups exist between McKee and Sola, so historical data is unavailable. This UFC debut gives Sola the mental edge as a fresh, undefeated competitor versus the experienced but struggling McKee.
• No reported current injuries for either fighter impacting performance or preparation.
• Fight is in Sola’s UFC debut, a strong motivating factor. The bout takes place in Paris, which is neutral ground for both fighters, limiting home advantage effect.
• Sola’s motivation is high to make a strong first impression and maintain his unbeaten streak, while McKee is likely motivated to rebound from his UFC struggles but has shown inconsistency recently.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: +114, away: -135	away	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	home +3.5: -180, away -3.5: +130	away -3.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	over 2.5: -166, under 2.5: +130	under 2.5	★★★☆☆ 62%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Axel Sola 39%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 38%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Axel Sola at 39% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 34.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Axel Sola to win by decision

Predicted Score: Axel Sola wins by decision – UFC standard scoring

Match Analysis: Rhys McKee vs Daniel Frunza – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-05
• Time: 11:45 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

Rhys McKee enters this match with a record of 13-6-1, while Daniel Frunza holds a record of 9-2-0. This welterweight bout will feature both fighters looking to improve their standing in the division, with McKee coming off a split decision loss and Frunza coming off a knockout victory.

Key Factors to Consider

• McKee has a higher average fight time of 12:02 compared to Frunza's 8:30, indicating his ability to endure longer bouts. McKee lands 4.80 significant strikes per minute with a 45% accuracy rate, whereas Frunza lands 4.94 significant strikes per minute with a 44% accuracy. McKee's defense is weaker, allowing 7.85 strikes per minute, while Frunza allows only 5.53.
• This will be the first meeting between Rhys McKee and Daniel Frunza, making their head-to-head record non-existent. Both fighters have shown distinct strengths, with McKee having more experience and Frunza showing strong finishing ability.
• There are no reported injuries for either fighter leading up to this match. Both are coming into the fight healthy, which is crucial for performance.
• The fight will take place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a venue familiar to both fighters. Home crowd advantage may slightly favor McKee, but both are professional and accustomed to the pressure of live events.
• McKee is motivated to bounce back from his recent loss and prove his abilities in the octagon, while Frunza aims to build on his winning streak. Both fighters have much at stake in terms of career progression.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Rhys McKee: +130, Daniel Frunza: -150	Daniel Frunza to win	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Rhys McKee: +50, Daniel Frunza: -0.5	Daniel Frunza to cover the spread	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 2.5: -110, Under 2.5: -120	Fight to go over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Daniel Frunza is favored to win, given his recent performance and slightly better statistics in striking. However, McKee's experience and reach advantage may level the playing field.

Predicted Score: Frunza 29, McKee 28