Match Analysis: Rhys McKee vs Axel Sola – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-06
• Time: 7:45 PM UTC
• Location: Accor Arena, Paris, France

Game Overview

Welterweight UFC bout between Irish veteran Rhys McKee and French newcomer Axel Sola happening at UFC Fight Night 258 in Paris. McKee aims to re-establish himself in the UFC after a challenging record, while Sola makes his UFC debut undefeated, bringing strong momentum.

Key Factors to Consider

• Rhys McKee has a professional MMA record of 14-6-1 with a UFC record of 1-4, averaging 5.16 significant strikes per minute but absorbs high striking volume (7.92 per minute) and has modest takedown defense (41%). Axel Sola is undefeated at 10-0-1, motivated and stepping into the UFC for the first time, with a strong winning momentum from previous promotions.
• No previous fights between McKee and Sola; this is their first encounter.
• No reported injuries for either fighter prior to the bout.
• The fight takes place in Paris, giving Axel Sola home advantage with crowd support, which could influence energy and motivation. McKee embraces the 'villain' role, possibly channeling this to elevate performance.
• Sola is highly motivated to maintain his perfect record and impress in his UFC debut on home soil. McKee is eager to rebound and prove himself after a tough UFC run, with significant preparation despite opponent changes.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Axel Sola: -135, Rhys McKee: 114	Axel Sola	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Axel Sola: -3.5 130, Rhys McKee: 3.5 -180	Axel Sola to win by more than 3.5 points (dominant finish likely)	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over: 2.5 -166, Under: 2.5 130	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Rhys McKee -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 27%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 27% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Axel Sola is favored to win due to his undefeated record, UFC debut momentum, and home crowd advantage, with McKee providing a strong challenge as an experienced UFC veteran.

Predicted Score: Axel Sola wins by TKO or decision within 3 rounds, 3-0 rounds in scoring terms

Match Analysis: Rhys McKee vs Daniel Frunza – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-04-05
• Time: 11:45 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

Rhys McKee enters this match with a record of 13-6-1, while Daniel Frunza holds a record of 9-2-0. This welterweight bout will feature both fighters looking to improve their standing in the division, with McKee coming off a split decision loss and Frunza coming off a knockout victory.

Key Factors to Consider

• McKee has a higher average fight time of 12:02 compared to Frunza's 8:30, indicating his ability to endure longer bouts. McKee lands 4.80 significant strikes per minute with a 45% accuracy rate, whereas Frunza lands 4.94 significant strikes per minute with a 44% accuracy. McKee's defense is weaker, allowing 7.85 strikes per minute, while Frunza allows only 5.53.
• This will be the first meeting between Rhys McKee and Daniel Frunza, making their head-to-head record non-existent. Both fighters have shown distinct strengths, with McKee having more experience and Frunza showing strong finishing ability.
• There are no reported injuries for either fighter leading up to this match. Both are coming into the fight healthy, which is crucial for performance.
• The fight will take place at UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a venue familiar to both fighters. Home crowd advantage may slightly favor McKee, but both are professional and accustomed to the pressure of live events.
• McKee is motivated to bounce back from his recent loss and prove his abilities in the octagon, while Frunza aims to build on his winning streak. Both fighters have much at stake in terms of career progression.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Rhys McKee: +130, Daniel Frunza: -150	Daniel Frunza to win	★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread	Rhys McKee: +50, Daniel Frunza: -0.5	Daniel Frunza to cover the spread	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 2.5: -110, Under 2.5: -120	Fight to go over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Daniel Frunza is favored to win, given his recent performance and slightly better statistics in striking. However, McKee's experience and reach advantage may level the playing field.

Predicted Score: Frunza 29, McKee 28