Match Analysis: Renat Khavalov vs Vilson Ndregjoni – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-08-15
- Time: 10:00 PM UTC
- Location: Ovens Auditorium, 2700 East Independence Blvd., Charlotte, NC 28205
Game Overview
The bantamweight bout between undefeated Renat Khavalov (9-0) and Vilson Ndregjoni (11-4) is part of the PFL World Tournament 9 Finals on August 15, 2025. Both fighters stand at 170 cm with equal reach, but Khavalov is 27 while Ndregjoni is 33 years old. Khavalov enters the fight undefeated, with a high finish rate via KO/TKO (6 of 9 wins), indicating strong striking power and dominance. Ndregjoni, with more fights, has a mixed record showing solid decision wins but also multiple losses, with a slightly more diverse finish profile including submissions.
Key Factors to Consider
- Khavalov is undefeated with an aggressive striking style (6 of 9 wins by KO/TKO) and no losses, suggesting dominant recent performances. Ndregjoni shows resilience with 11 wins and 4 losses, capable of winning by decisions and submissions, reflecting a more experienced but less consistent form.
- This will be their first scheduled meeting, so there is no direct head-to-head data to analyze.
- No reported injuries for either fighter are noted in the available data, implying both are likely entering at full health.
- The fight is held at Ovens Auditorium in Charlotte, NC; no fighter has an apparent home advantage based on nationality (Russia vs Albania), and the event is a high-profile PFL Tournament final, increasing stakes and motivation.
- Khavalov's undefeated record and youth suggest strong momentum and motivation to maintain perfection and advance as a rising star. Ndregjoni’s experience and role in the finals suggest motivation to upset and prove his resilience against a younger undefeated fighter.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Renat Khavalov: -650, Vilson Ndregjoni: 400 | Renat Khavalov | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Renat Khavalov: -1.5 rounds, Vilson Ndregjoni: +1.5 rounds | Renat Khavalov by spread | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: Even, Under 2.5 rounds: Even | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Renat Khavalov -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Renat Khavalov at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Prediction favors Renat Khavalov to win, leveraging his undefeated status, higher finishing rate, and younger age. The betting market heavily favors Khavalov (-650) versus Ndregjoni (+400), indicating strong bookmaker confidence in Khavalov's victory. Ndregjoni poses a credible challenge but is less likely to win given the current form and odds.
Predicted Score: Renat Khavalov wins by KO/TKO in Round 2