Match Analysis: Raufeon Stots vs Sergio Pettis – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-27
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Wintrust Arena, Chicago
Game Overview
The bantamweight semifinal bout at the 2025 PFL World Tournament features former teammates and Bellator bantamweight champions Raufeon Stots and Sergio Pettis. Both fighters bring extensive experience and championship pedigree to the cage. Pettis, with a record of 23-7, is coming off a year-long hiatus and two straight losses but is known for elite boxing skills and star power. Stots, at 21-2, is a strong wrestler with quick striking combinations and a calculated fight style, having notable wins over top opponents, though he suffered two significant knockout losses in the past. This matchup is highly anticipated due to their shared history and contrasting fighting styles, with the winner advancing to the PFL finals[1][2].
Key Factors to Consider
- Individually, both fighters have shown top-tier skills. Pettis excelled in UFC and Bellator, notably for his boxing, but recent losses and inactivity may affect his sharpness. Stots is known for his wrestling credentials and tactical approach, with success in PFL so far, displaying resilience and patience in fights. Both fighters have proven their ability to finish fights and dominate rounds, but momentum favors Stots currently[2].
- No direct previous fights between Raufeon Stots and Sergio Pettis are recorded, but they share a history as former teammates and Bellator champions, adding an emotional and strategic layer to this bout[1].
- No public reports of current injuries for either fighter leading into this match have been noted, indicating both are expected to compete at full health[1][2].
- The fight takes place in Chicago at Wintrust Arena, a neutral venue for both fighters. Media attention and fan interest are high due to their shared past and championship statuses. Pettis' one-year hiatus and momentum loss contrasts with Stots' recent activity and focus within PFL. There are no indications of environmental or logistical concerns affecting either fighter[1][2][3][4][5].
- Pettis seeks to reclaim his winning form and break his losing streak, motivated by the opportunity to advance in the PFL and rejuvenate his career. Stots aims to consolidate his rising status in PFL, leveraging his recent successes and wrestling pedigree to secure his place in the finals. Both fighters have strong incentives, but Stots' current momentum and activity may provide an edge in motivation and readiness[2].
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Raufeon Stots: -175, Sergio Pettis: 145 | Raufeon Stots | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Stots -1.5 rounds: -120, Pettis +1.5 rounds: 100 | Stots -1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -110, Under 2.5 rounds: -110 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Raufeon Stots -1% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Raufeon Stots at -1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Raufeon Stots is slightly favored to win this tightly contested bantamweight bout due to his recent activity, wrestling strength, and fight IQ, despite Pettis' elite boxing and championship experience. Stots' ability to control the fight on the ground and dictate pace should give him an advantage, but Pettis' striking power keeps the fight competitive and potentially volatile.
Predicted Score: Stots wins by decision or late stoppage in round 3