Match Analysis: Rashid Vagabov vs Paulo da Silva – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-01
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Dana White's Contender Series – Week 8
Game Overview
This flyweight bout features Rashid Vagabov, a dominant grappler with a four-fight submission streak and strong ground control, facing Paulo da Silva, an 11-fight unbeaten striker with strong finishing power but susceptibility to takedowns and weaker defense.
Key Factors to Consider
- Vagabov is riding a four-fight submission win streak with notable endurance and wrestling dominance, while da Silva has an 11-fight winning streak primarily via striking and pressure but has shown vulnerability to takedowns.
- No prior fights between Vagabov and da Silva; styles suggest Vagabov's grappling is favored to neutralize da Silva's striking advantage.
- No reported injuries for either fighter at the time of analysis; both entered in full preparation for the bout.
- Fighters are contesting for UFC contracts in Dana White's Contender Series, heightening motivation; Vagabov trains with the prestigious Nurmagomedov camp, implying superior grappling preparation.
- Both competitors are highly motivated to secure UFC contracts, but Vagabov’s recent dominance and stylistic matchup give him a motivational edge to control the fight.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rashid Vagabov: -600, Paulo da Silva: +450 | Rashid Vagabov | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Rashid Vagabov -1.5 rounds: +124 | Rashid Vagabov to win within 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 Rounds: -165, Under 1.5 Rounds: +145 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rashid Vagabov -13% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 72% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 72% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 49.3% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Rashid Vagabov wins by submission within 1.5 rounds.
Predicted Score: Vagabov wins by 1st round submission