Match Analysis: Cody Chovancek vs Raphael Uchegbu – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-17
- Time: 12:15 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, USA
Game Overview
Bantamweight bout featuring undefeated Cody Chovancek against experienced Raphael Uchegbu in the Contender Series at UFC Apex.
Key Factors to Consider
- Uchegbu comes off strong form (4-1 last 5 fights) with 9 finishes in 11 fights, mixing striking and submissions effectively. Chovancek is undefeated (8-0) showing aggressive wrestling and finishing ability but has shown vulnerabilities to reach and striking.
- No prior direct matchups between these fighters; styles contrast with Chovancek favoring wrestling aggression and Uchegbu relying on reach, striking volume, and evolving grappling defense.
- No explicit injury reports for either fighter, both apparently in full training health.
- Fight held at UFC Apex with no apparent external motivators affecting either fighter; both motivated for Contender Series success and potential UFC contracts.
- Chovancek highly motivated for finish as he openly aims to impress for UFC promotion; Uchegbu motivated by leveraging experience and technical advantage with more diverse finishing skill set.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cody Chovancek: 155, Raphael Uchegbu: -180 | Raphael Uchegbu | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Raphael Uchegbu -1.5: -120, Cody Chovancek +1.5: 100 | Raphael Uchegbu -1.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: -135, Under 2.5 rounds: 115 | Over 2.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Raphael Uchegbu -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 22% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 22% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Raphael Uchegbu to win by decision or late stoppage
Predicted Score: Raphael Uchegbu wins by unanimous decision or TKO round 3/4