Match Analysis: Ricky Simon vs Raoni Barcelos – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-09
- Time: 12:45 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Game Overview
Ricky Simon faces Raoni Barcelos in a bantamweight bout on the main card of UFC Vegas 111. Both fighters are experienced veterans at 135 lbs, with Simon holding a 22-6-0 record and Barcelos at 20-5-0. The fight is scheduled for three rounds and is expected to be a competitive matchup between two skilled strikers and grapplers. Simon is the betting favorite, with odds reflecting his recent momentum and strong grappling stats.
Key Factors to Consider
- Ricky Simon averages 2.93 significant strikes per minute with a 44% accuracy rate, while Raoni Barcelos lands 4.87 significant strikes per minute at 52% accuracy. Simon absorbs 3.72 significant strikes per minute, compared to Barcelos at 4.40. Simon defends 61% of strikes, Barcelos 60%. Simon averages 5.01 takedowns per 15 minutes with a 43% completion rate, giving him a clear edge in grappling. Simon’s recent wins include a first-round knockout and a unanimous decision, while Barcelos has shown resilience but less finishing ability lately.
- No previous fights between Simon and Barcelos. This will be their first meeting.
- No reported injuries for either fighter as of the latest updates.
- The fight takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, a neutral venue. Both fighters are accustomed to the environment. The event is broadcast on ESPN+, with no crowd influence due to the Apex setup.
- Simon is looking to solidify his position in the rankings after a strong 2025, while Barcelos aims to rebound and climb back up the division. Both fighters have shown motivation in recent interviews and training camps.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ricky Simon: -170, Raoni Barcelos: 142 | Ricky Simon | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Ricky Simon: -3.5 120, Raoni Barcelos: 3.5 -165 | Ricky Simon -3.5 | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over: 2.5 -250, Under: 2.5 190 | Under 2.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ricky Simon -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 2.5 107% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 107% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 56.4% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Ricky Simon is favored due to his superior grappling, recent form, and defensive stats. Barcelos has a higher striking output but is less efficient defensively. Simon’s ability to control the fight on the ground and his higher takedown rate give him the edge. The odds and implied probabilities support Simon as the likely winner, but Barcelos remains dangerous on the feet.
Predicted Score: Ricky Simon wins by unanimous decision or late finish, likely going to the third round but not ending before it.