Match Analysis: Ricky Simon vs Raoni Barcelos – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-08
• Time: 11:15 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

Ricky Simon faces Raoni Barcelos in a bantamweight bout at UFC Vegas 111. Simon is a high-volume wrestler with relentless pressure, while Barcelos is a dangerous striker with recent momentum and strong striking stats. The fight is expected to be a high-paced, tactical battle with Simon’s wrestling likely dictating the pace.

Key Factors to Consider

• Simon averages over 5 takedowns per fight and controls opponents with top pressure. Barcelos lands nearly 5 significant strikes per minute with 52% accuracy, but absorbs more damage than Simon. Simon defends 61% of strikes, Barcelos 60%.
• No prior H2H matchup exists between the two fighters.
• No public injury reports for either fighter.
• Fighting at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, both fighters are in familiar territory. No major weather or venue issues expected.
• Barcelos is on a two-fight win streak with decisive victories, seeking to climb the rankings. Simon is motivated to rebound and reestablish himself as a top contender.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -175, away: 145	Ricky Simon	★★★★☆ 74%
Spread	home: -3.5, away: 3.5	Ricky Simon -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	over: -250, under: 190	Over 2.5	★★★★☆ 78%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Ricky Simon 7%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 5%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Ricky Simon at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 12% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Ricky Simon wins by decision, using his wrestling to control Barcelos and neutralize his striking over three rounds.

Predicted Score: Ricky Simon wins by unanimous decision, 30-27, 29-28, 29-28

Match Analysis: Cody Garbrandt vs Raoni Barcelos – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-14
• Time: 3:00 AM UTC
• Location: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA

Game Overview

A high-stakes bantamweight bout between former champion Cody Garbrandt (14–6, known for knockout power and explosive speed) and veteran Raoni Barcelos (19–5, with well-rounded skills in striking, grappling, and cardio). Garbrandt looks to rebound from a recent submission loss, while Barcelos carries momentum from a recent unanimous decision win.

Key Factors to Consider

• Cody Garbrandt: Recent KO win, followed by submission loss; Raoni Barcelos: Coming off decision win and recent submission victory. Garbrandt has better knockout power, Barcelos has superior cardio and durability.
• No prior head-to-head matchup.
• No official injury reports ahead of the fight; both fighters made weight[2].
• No significant external factors reported. Venue and crowd are expected to be lively.
• Garbrandt eager to regain top contender status; Barcelos looking to climb the bantamweight ladder.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Cody Garbrandt: +170, Raoni Barcelos: -205	Raoni Barcelos	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Cody Garbrandt (3.5): -160, Raoni Barcelos (-3.5): +115	Raoni Barcelos -3.5	★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -135, Under 2.5: +105	Over 2.5	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Raoni Barcelos -3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 18%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 18% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 24.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Raoni Barcelos via decision. Expect him to utilize his well-rounded game to control the fight pace, nullify Garbrandt’s early power, and outlast him in later rounds. Barcelos’ superior cardio, grappling defense, and fight IQ give him the edge.

Predicted Score: Decision win for Raoni Barcelos, likely score 30–27 or 29–28 based on fight pacing and stylistic match-up[1].