Match Analysis: Gabriel Bonfim vs Randy Brown – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-08
- Time: 2:15 AM UTC
- Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas
Game Overview
Gabriel Bonfim (18-1-0) faces Randy Brown (20-6-0) in a welterweight main event at UFC Vegas 111. Bonfim is a rising submission threat with elite grappling, while Brown is a veteran with strong striking and cardio. Bonfim is favored by bookmakers, but Brown’s experience and reach could make this competitive.
Key Factors to Consider
- Bonfim has won 10 straight, including a split decision over Stephen in his last outing. Brown has gone 3-2 in his last five, with losses to top-tier competition. Bonfim’s recent form is superior, but Brown’s losses came against higher-ranked fighters.
- No previous meetings between Bonfim and Brown.
- No reported injuries for either fighter.
- Bonfim is 35, Brown is 28. Bonfim has a reach disadvantage (72.5” vs 78”), but higher takedown and submission averages. Brown has a slight edge in striking accuracy and volume.
- Bonfim is on a long win streak and looking to solidify his status as a top welterweight. Brown is motivated to rebound after recent losses and prove he still belongs in the upper tier.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | home: -170, away: 142 | Gabriel Bonfim | ★★★★☆ 74% |
| Spread | home: -13.5, away: 13.5 | Gabriel Bonfim -13.5 | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Over/under | over: -135, under: 105 | Over 2.5 | ★★★★☆ 72% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Gabriel Bonfim -2% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 2.5 13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 17.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Gabriel Bonfim wins by submission in the second round.
Predicted Score: Gabriel Bonfim defeats Randy Brown via submission (rear-naked choke) at 3:12 of Round 2