Match Analysis: Austin Vanderford vs Ramiz Brahimaj – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-04
• Time: 8:00 PM UTC
• Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas

Game Overview

UFC 320 welterweight clash, with both fighters seeking momentum in the division. Vanderford, 35, is the slim favorite, facing off against Brahimaj, 32, in what promises to be a striking-focused matchup.

Key Factors to Consider

• Vanderford (13-2) is riding a two-fight win streak and holds a better striking output (4.08/min, 63% accuracy vs. Brahimaj’s 2.14/min, 45% accuracy). Vanderford is also more defensively sound (51% strike defense vs. Brahimaj’s 43%) and absorbs fewer significant strikes per minute (2.66 vs. 3.81)[1]. Brahimaj, though, is dangerous on the ground, with a submission-heavy resume, but Vanderford’s wrestling background and better takedown defense make him less likely to be caught.
• No prior matchups. Vanderford holds a superior record and has faced higher-caliber opposition.
• No public reports of injuries pre-fight.
• Fight takes place at altitude in Vegas; both fighters have fought nationally but no obvious edge. No major external distractions reported for either fighter.
• Vanderford is aiming to solidify contender status at 170 lbs, while Brahimaj urgently needs a win to avoid three straight losses.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Vanderford -300 / Brahimaj +250	Vanderford wins	★★★★☆ 78%
Over/under	Over 1.5 -210 / Under 1.5 +180	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 85%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Austin Vanderford 166%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 14%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Austin Vanderford at 166% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 66.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Vanderford wins by unanimous decision, utilizing superior striking and defensive fundamentals with minimal risk of being finished by Brahimaj.

Predicted Score: Vanderford wins by unanimous decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Match Analysis: Billy Goff vs Ramiz Brahimaj – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-05-31
• Time: 2:40 AM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, NV

Game Overview

Billy Goff (9-3-0), a versatile switch striker, faces Ramiz Brahimaj (11-5-0), an orthodox grappler, in a welterweight bout on the main card of UFC Vegas 107: Blanchfield vs Barber. This matchup pits Goff's significant strike volume (8.56 per min, 46% accuracy) against Brahimaj's grappling and defensive approach (2.26 significant strikes per min, 44% accuracy). Goff is favored by bookmakers, indicating faith in his striking and activity over Brahimaj's grappling prowess[2][3][4].

Key Factors to Consider

• Billy Goff lands nearly four times the significant strikes per minute as Brahimaj and has better offensive and defensive striking metrics. Brahimaj relies more on wrestling and ground control, but Goff's high-volume output makes him the more active fighter on the feet[2].
• No previous meetings between Goff and Brahimaj in MMA competition[2][3][4].
• No public injury reports for either fighter ahead of this bout[1][2][4].
• No major external factors reported; both fighters are healthy and fit for competition. This bout was rebooked due to previous visa and scheduling issues, but both are now set for this event[1][2].
• Goff seeks to build momentum and climb the welterweight rankings, while Brahimaj aims to prove his grappling can overcome high-level strikers and get back on track after mixed recent results[2][4].

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Billy Goff: -355, Ramiz Brahimaj: 280	Billy Goff	★★★★☆ 80%
Spread	Billy Goff: -3.5 (-195), Ramiz Brahimaj: +3.5 (140)	Billy Goff covers spread	★★★★☆ 70%
Over/under	Over 1.5: -175, Under 1.5: 135	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Billy Goff -0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 1.5 1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 1.5 at 1% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Billy Goff is expected to win via decision or late stoppage, utilizing his high-volume striking and movement to dictate the pace. Brahimaj's best path is early takedowns and submission attempts, but Goff's defensive wrestling and high activity make him the safer pick[2][3][4].

Predicted Score: Billy Goff by decision (unanimous or split), 29-28