Match Analysis: Steven Nelson vs Raiko Santana – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-13
- Time: 11:00 PM UTC
- Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, USA
Game Overview
This Super Middleweight bout features Steven Nelson, a powerful puncher with 76% KO rate, facing Raiko Santana, a durable opponent with a lower KO rate but solid recent form. Nelson recently lost a decision to Diego Pacheco but has demonstrated strong finishing ability in past fights. Santana has fewer fights but has shown resilience and tactical skill.
Key Factors to Consider
- Nelson holds a 20-1 record with 16 KOs and an average fight length of 6.4 rounds recently, indicating strong power and mid-fight endurance. Santana is 12-4, less powerful with 6 KOs but coming off a recent win over Lorenzo Simpson, signaling effective form.
- No previous head-to-head matches between Nelson and Santana, making this a stylistic and form-based matchup.
- No reported injuries for either fighter prior to the bout.
- Fight is at neutral but prestigious venue Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, which could favor Nelson's comfort fighting in high-profile US venues.
- Nelson looks motivated to rebound after a recent loss to Pacheco and demonstrates confidence. Santana aims to continue building his reputation with a significant upset.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Steven Nelson -250, Raiko Santana +200 | Steven Nelson | ★★★★☆ 72% |
| Spread | Steven Nelson -1.5 rounds at -150 | Steven Nelson -1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Over/under | Over 8.5 rounds -300, Under 8.5 rounds +225 | Under 8.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Steven Nelson -3% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 8.5 144% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 144% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 63.9% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Steven Nelson to win by moneyline
Predicted Score: Steven Nelson wins by TKO in round 7