Match Analysis: Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev vs Raffael Cerqueira – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-11-22
• Time: 5:30 PM UTC
• Location: ABHA Arena, Doha, Qatar

Game Overview

This light heavyweight MMA bout features undefeated debutant Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev (7-0) facing experienced but winless-in-UFC Raffael Cerqueira (11-3, 0-3 UFC). The fight is part of UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker, marking UFC's first event in Qatar. Yakhyaev is favored by bookmakers due to his undefeated record, discipline, cardio, and grappling superiority, while Cerqueira looks to redeem his UFC struggles.

Key Factors to Consider

• Yakhyaev enters with a perfect 7-0 record, demonstrating finishing ability with early round KOs, submissions, and strong grappling. Cerqueira has more professional fights (11-3) but has struggled in UFC bouts (0-3), indicating difficulty adapting at elite level. Yakhyaev’s versatility strikes and grappling are seen as superior.
• No prior matchups between Yakhyaev and Cerqueira exist, making this their first encounter.
• No reported injuries or fitness issues for either fighter prior to the bout.
• The fight takes place in Doha, Qatar, which is UFC’s debut event location, possibly favoring Yakhyaev’s conditioning and mental preparedness as he fights under expected peak shape and discipline.
• Yakhyaev is motivated to secure a strong UFC debut and maintain undefeated status, boosting his career trajectory. Cerqueira is driven to overcome his UFC losing streak and prove he belongs at this level.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	home: -1350, away: 800	Yakhyaev win	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	home: -7.5 -800, away: 7.5 450	Yakhyaev to win by more than 7.5 points (dominant finish)	★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under	over: 1.5 230, under: 1.5 -315	Under 1.5 rounds (early finish expected)	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev 737%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -21%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev at 737% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 92.1% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev is predicted to win by early TKO or ground-and-pound dominance, likely in the first round, leveraging his superior cardio, discipline, and grappling to control and finish Cerqueira.

Predicted Score: Yakhyaev wins via TKO/KO Round 1

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – November 22, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev vs. Raffael Cerqueira Prediction	Abdulrakhman Yakhyaev	-1350	737%
Nurullo Aliev vs. Shaqueme Rock Prediction	Shaqueme Rock	235	152%
Belal Muhammad vs. Ian Garry Prediction	Over 2.5	-315	151%

Combined Odds: +374 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $94.81

Match Analysis: Julius Walker vs Raffael Cerqueira – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-09
• Time: 8:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas

Game Overview

The light heavyweight prelims fight features Julius Walker, a 26-year-old orthodox striker with solid wrestling skills and a record of 6-1, against veteran southpaw Raffael Cerqueira, 35, with an 11-2 record. Both weigh around 205 lbs, with Walker standing 6'4" and Cerqueira 6'3". Walker demonstrates a higher significant strike rate and better absorption defense, while Cerqueira possesses experience and a respectable strike deflection rate.

Key Factors to Consider

• Julius Walker maintains an aggressive and effective striking output at 5.73 significant strikes landed per minute with 50% accuracy, while defending well with a 40% significant strike defense rate. Cerqueira, with 3.28 significant strikes landed per minute and 43% accuracy, tends to absorb a higher rate of significant strikes (14.43 per minute) despite a slightly better strike deflection rate of 42%.
• There is no previous direct fight between Julius Walker and Raffael Cerqueira, making this matchup unpredictable and reliant on style analysis and current form.
• No current injury reports for either fighter have been identified leading up to this match.
• The match takes place at UFC Apex, a neutral venue known for hosting UFC events, with no external weather or location disadvantages impacting either fighter. Walker is younger and considered to be in prime physical condition, whereas Cerqueira’s age may be a factor.
• Walker is seen as an up-and-coming prospect eager to solidify his status, showing more composure and depth in fights. Cerqueira, as a veteran, is motivated to leverage his experience to upset the younger fighter.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Julius Walker: -675, Raffael Cerqueira: 490	Julius Walker	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Julius Walker -3.5: -525, Raffael Cerqueira +3.5: 330	Julius Walker -3.5	★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under	Over 1.5 rounds: 200, Under 1.5 rounds: -270	Under 1.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 75%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Julius Walker -2%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -11%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Julius Walker at -2% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Julius Walker is predicted to control the fight through superior wrestling and striking accuracy, with a high likelihood of a first-round technical knockout, unless Cerqueira can successfully counter early.

Predicted Score: Walker wins by first-round TKO

Match Analysis: Modestas Bukauskas vs Raffael Cerqueira – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: February 22, 2025
• Time: 11:15 PM UTC
• Location: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, Washington

Game Overview

Modestas Bukauskas and Raffael Cerqueira face off in a light heavyweight bout at UFC Fight Night 252. Bukauskas, known as 'The Baltic Gladiator,' has a record of 16-6 and recently secured a submission victory. Cerqueira, 'The Lion,' holds an 11-1 record but suffered a quick knockout loss in his UFC debut.

Key Factors to Consider

• Modestas Bukauskas has a more extensive UFC experience with a recent submission win, while Raffael Cerqueira boasts an impressive record but struggled in his UFC debut.
• This is the first meeting between the two fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight takes place at the Climate Pledge Arena, which may not significantly impact either fighter.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Bukauskas seeking to extend his UFC win streak and Cerqueira aiming to bounce back from his debut loss.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-285 for Modestas Bukauskas, +230 for Raffael Cerqueira	Modestas Bukauskas	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Not available	Not available	Not available
Over_under	Over 1.5 rounds: -140, Under 1.5 rounds: +110	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Modestas Bukauskas is favored to win due to his experience and recent performance.

Predicted Score: Decision victory for Modestas Bukauskas