Match Analysis: Julius Walker vs Raffael Cerqueira – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-09
• Time: 8:00 PM UTC
• Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

Game Overview

Julius Walker (-675) faces Raffael Cerqueira (+490) in a light heavyweight UFC bout at UFC Vegas 109. Walker is a younger, taller orthodox fighter with a 6-1 record, known for high significant strike output and solid defense. Cerqueira is an experienced southpaw with an 11-2 record but absorbs many strikes and has a lower strike rate.

Key Factors to Consider

• Walker holds a recent record of 6-1 with high striking volume and efficiency (5.73 significant strikes/min at 50% accuracy), while Cerqueira is 11-2 with a lower strike rate (3.28/min at 43%) but better strike defense (42%). Walker's defense allows fewer strikes absorbed (5.80 per min) compared to Cerqueira's high absorption (14.43 per min).
• No prior head-to-head bouts between Julius Walker and Raffael Cerqueira.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading up to the fight.
• Fight takes place at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas, neutral venue; Walker benefits from youth and reach advantage (78" vs 76"), potentially favoring striking exchanges.
• Walker, at 26, is seeking to establish himself as a rising contender with a near-flawless record; Cerqueira, at 35, chasing relevance against a top prospect, potentially motivated but possibly impacted by age.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Walker: -675, Cerqueira: +490	Julius Walker	★★★★☆ 83%
Spread	Walker -3.5 (-525), Cerqueira +3.5 (330)	Julius Walker -3.5	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over 1.5 (+200), Under 1.5 (-270)	Under 1.5	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Julius Walker -6%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 1.5 -3%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Julius Walker wins by decision

Predicted Score: Julius Walker via decision

Match Analysis: Modestas Bukauskas vs Raffael Cerqueira – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: February 22, 2025
• Time: 11:15 PM UTC
• Location: Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, Washington

Game Overview

Modestas Bukauskas and Raffael Cerqueira face off in a light heavyweight bout at UFC Fight Night 252. Bukauskas, known as 'The Baltic Gladiator,' has a record of 16-6 and recently secured a submission victory. Cerqueira, 'The Lion,' holds an 11-1 record but suffered a quick knockout loss in his UFC debut.

Key Factors to Consider

• Modestas Bukauskas has a more extensive UFC experience with a recent submission win, while Raffael Cerqueira boasts an impressive record but struggled in his UFC debut.
• This is the first meeting between the two fighters.
• No reported injuries for either fighter.
• The fight takes place at the Climate Pledge Arena, which may not significantly impact either fighter.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Bukauskas seeking to extend his UFC win streak and Cerqueira aiming to bounce back from his debut loss.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-285 for Modestas Bukauskas, +230 for Raffael Cerqueira	Modestas Bukauskas	★★★★☆ 70%
Spread	Not available	Not available	Not available
Over_under	Over 1.5 rounds: -140, Under 1.5 rounds: +110	Over 1.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Predicted Outcome

Modestas Bukauskas is favored to win due to his experience and recent performance.

Predicted Score: Decision victory for Modestas Bukauskas