Match Analysis: Rafał Haratyk vs Bartosz Leśko – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-18
• Time: 4:00 PM UTC
• Location: KSW 111, Lightweight Division, KSW Event Venue (Exact venue not specified)

Game Overview

Rafał Haratyk faces Bartosz Leśko in a light heavyweight MMA bout at KSW 111. Both fighters are relatively evenly matched stylistically, but Haratyk enters with a stronger recent record and better grappling statistics, making him a slight favorite.

Key Factors to Consider

• Haratyk has demonstrated consistent performance improvements in his last five fights with a 4-1 record, utilizing dominant grappling and strong striking, while Leśko shows a 2-3 record with vulnerabilities in takedown defense.
• No previous encounters between Haratyk and Leśko have been recorded, adding an element of unpredictability but favoring the fighter with more recent success and better ranked opponents.
• Neither fighter reports recent injuries or camp disruptions, suggesting both will be at full fitness.
• The fight is held in a neutral venue without crowd bias. Travel and climate conditions do not appear to disadvantage either athlete significantly.
• Haratyk is motivated to cement his rising status in KSW's light heavyweight division aiming for a title shot, whereas Leśko appears motivated to bounce back from recent losses but may be under psychological pressure.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Haratyk -180, Leśko +150, Draw +1200	Haratyk	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Haratyk -1.5 (+150), Leśko +1.5 (-180)	Haratyk -1.5	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 3.5 rounds (-130), Under 3.5 rounds (+110)	Under 3.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Home 0%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	N/A

🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 100% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Haratyk to win by method (finish or decision), under 3.5 rounds.

Predicted Score: Haratyk wins by decision or late stoppage within 3 rounds