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Match Analysis: Rafał Haratyk vs Bartosz Leśko – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-18
- Time: 4:00 PM UTC
- Location: KSW Event, Light Heavyweight Main Card
Game Overview
The match between Rafał Haratyk and Bartosz Leśko is a KSW Light Heavyweight main card fight scheduled for October 18, 2025, at 7:00 PM UTC. Haratyk is recognized for his grappling, ground control, and submission skills. Leśko, on the other hand, is known for his striking and knockout power, making this a classic striker versus grappler match-up.
Key Factors to Consider
- Rafał Haratyk has demonstrated strong ground control and submission ability in past fights, making him a formidable wrestler on the mat. Bartosz Leśko excels in striking exchanges with significant knockout power, aiming to keep the fight standing.
- There are no previous head-to-head matchups recorded between Rafał Haratyk and Bartosz Leśko, so this bout will be their first direct competition.
- No current injuries reported for either fighter, suggesting both are at full fitness ahead of the fight.
- The fight occurs under the KSW promotion banner in a main card Light Heavyweight division bout, with no external conditions such as venue altitude or climate noted to affect performance.
- Both fighters have a strong incentive to impress on a main card spot for KSW. Haratyk's experience in grappling gives him confidence, while Leśko is motivated to turn his knockout prowess into a high-impact win.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rafał Haratyk: -350, Bartosz Leśko: +240 | Rafał Haratyk to win | ★★★★☆ 75% |
| Spread | Rafał Haratyk -1.5: -120, Bartosz Leśko +1.5: +100 | Rafał Haratyk to win by more than 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over 2.5 rounds: +110, Under 2.5 rounds: -130 | Under 2.5 rounds (early finish likely) | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Home 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Home at 0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Given Rafał Haratyk's grappling advantage and control on the ground, combined with his experience, he is the slight favorite to win. However, Bartosz Leśko's striking threat makes this a potentially volatile fight with round finishes possible. The prediction leans towards a Haratyk decision or submission victory, with a moderate chance of an early knockout by Leśko.
Predicted Score: Rafał Haratyk wins by submission or decision in Round 3