Match Analysis: Jair de Oliveira vs Rafael Tobias – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-24
- Time: 12:15 AM UTC
- Location: UFC APEX, Las Vegas
Game Overview
This light heavyweight MMA bout features Brazilian prospects Rafael Tobias (13-1) and Jair de Oliveira (6-0). Tobias is a taller, well-rounded fighter with strong grappling, solid striking, and a notable submission arsenal, while de Oliveira is an undefeated brawler known for speed and knockout power but with questions about his level of competition and conditioning.
Key Factors to Consider
- Tobias' experience and well-rounded skill set from the Chute Boxe Monstro camp contrasts with de Oliveira's comeback path and limited competition history. Tobias demonstrated effective aggressive striking and grappling, while de Oliveira relies heavily on knockout power and speed but has only fought lesser competition.
- This is their first encounter; no prior head-to-head exists.
- No reported injuries for either fighter ahead of the bout.
- The fight takes place at the UFC APEX in Las Vegas during Dana White's Contender Series with both fighters seeking to impress for potential UFC contracts. Oliveira is moving down a weight class to 205 lbs, which might affect his conditioning.
- Both fighters are motivated by the opportunity to earn a UFC contract. Tobias appears to have a slight edge given his younger age, activity, and clearer path to a UFC opportunity, while Oliveira aims to prove his viability despite a long layoff and lower competition level.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jair de Oliveira: 325, Rafael Tobias: -390 | Rafael Tobias | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Over/under | over: 207, under: -250 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rafael Tobias -10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 -9% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Rafael Tobias is predicted to win via grappling dominance and submissions, likely in the first or second round, given his height, reach, and ground game superiority. Oliveira poses an early knockout threat but may struggle against Tobias' wrestling and submission attempts.
Predicted Score: Rafael Tobias wins by submission in Round 1 or 2