Match Analysis: Jair de Oliveira vs Rafael Tobias – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-09-24
- Time: 12:15 AM UTC
- Location: Dana White's Contender Series
Game Overview
The matchup features undefeated Jair de Oliveira (6-0) against the favored Rafael Tobias (13-1) in a men's light heavyweight bout. Tobias holds a significant experience advantage while Oliveira is young and untested at the top levels.
Key Factors to Consider
- Jair de Oliveira is undefeated with 6 wins, showing rising potential but limited top-level experience. Rafael Tobias has 13 wins and 1 loss, demonstrating veteran experience and more fight time at competitive levels.
- No prior head-to-head meetings between Oliveira and Tobias; this is their first encounter.
- No publicly reported injuries to either fighter ahead of this matchup.
- The fight takes place on Dana White's Contender Series, a high-profile stage providing significant exposure and motivation for both fighters to perform well.
- Tobias is favored to further solidify his reputation and climb rankings, Oliveira motivated to maintain undefeated status and break through as a contender.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jair_de_Oliveira: +325, Rafael_Tobias: -390 | Rafael Tobias | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Spread | Rafael_Tobias_-1.5: -150, Jair_de_Oliveira_+1.5: +130 | Rafael Tobias -1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 70% |
| Over/under | Over_1.5: +207, Under_1.5: -250 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rafael Tobias -10% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 -9% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -9% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Rafael Tobias wins by moneyline, covering the spread, with the fight going under 1.5 rounds
Predicted Score: Rafael Tobias wins by TKO in round 1