Match Analysis: Rafael Pergentino vs Luke Fernandez – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-10-08
- Time: 12:15 AM UTC
- Location: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
Game Overview
Luke Fernandez, undefeated with a strong grappling background and experience at 205 lbs, faces Rafael Pergentino, a dangerous finisher but unproven at this weight and grappling level. The contest is set for 3 rounds on Dana White's Contender Series Week 9.
Key Factors to Consider
- Luke Fernandez is 5-0 with mostly finishes including knockouts and submissions, showing dominance and consistency. Pergentino is also undefeated but has only competed at a lower weight class and against lesser competition.
- No prior matchups between Pergentino and Fernandez.
- No injuries reported for either fighter ahead of the bout.
- Fight takes place at UFC Apex with equal conditions; Fernandez has the home advantage by nationality and experience at the weight class.
- Fernandez seeks to continue an unblemished career with strong UFC-level grappling credentials; Pergentino motivated to prove himself at a higher weight class and tougher competitors.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Luke Fernandez: -1800, Rafael Pergentino: +900 | Luke Fernandez | ★★★★☆ 85% |
| Spread | Luke Fernandez -1.5 rounds: -120, Rafael Pergentino +1.5 rounds: +100 | Luke Fernandez -1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 80% |
| Over/under | Over 1.5 rounds: +316, Under 1.5 rounds: -400 | Under 1.5 rounds | ★★★★☆ 75% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Luke Fernandez -16% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 1.5 -6% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at -6% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Luke Fernandez to win decisively, likely by stoppage
Predicted Score: Luke Fernandez wins by 2nd round TKO