Match Analysis: Rafael Fiziev vs Ignacio Bahamondes – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-21
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: Baku Crystal Hall, Baku, Azerbaijan

Game Overview

This UFC Fight Night co-main event features Rafael Fiziev, a sharp Muay Thai striker with a 66.7% KO/TKO rate, facing off against Ignacio Bahamondes, an aggressive, high-volume striker known for his reach and explosive knockout power. The bout is set in Baku, Azerbaijan, on June 21, 2025, promising an intense striking battle between two dynamic fighters.

Key Factors to Consider

• Rafael Fiziev has shown elite precision and power in striking, typically controlling stand-up exchanges with speed and technique. Bahamondes brings a relentless volume and reach advantage, with 11 KO/TKO wins indicative of his finishing capability. Both fighters have aggressive styles enhancing the likelihood of a stoppage.
• No previous head-to-head bouts recorded between Fiziev and Bahamondes, making this a fresh matchup with stylistic contrasts—Fiziev's technical Muay Thai versus Bahamondes' high-volume reach striking.
• No reported injuries for either fighter leading into the match, suggesting both athletes are in peak physical condition.
• The fight location in Baku means neither fighter has home crowd advantage; however, Fiziev’s presence in a high-profile UFC event after a recent performance blip adds psychological motivation. Bahamondes recently earned a UFC contract with a spectacular KO, boosting his confidence significantly.
• Bahamondes is highly motivated, having dramatically impressed UFC President Dana White with a KO contender performance and expressing strong willingness to engage in a 'banger' fight. Fiziev aims to rebound with a knockout win to reassert his elite status.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Ignacio Bahamondes: -130, Rafael Fiziev: 110	Rafael Fiziev	Not available
Spread	Ignacio Bahamondes -3.5: 140, Rafael Fiziev +3.5: -195	Rafael Fiziev +3.5	Not available
Over/under	Over 2.5: -188, Under 2.5: 145	Under 2.5 rounds	Not available

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Ignacio Bahamondes -99%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 -99%

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Rafael Fiziev is predicted to win by KO/TKO, leveraging his precision striking and power to overcome Bahamondes' reach and volume attack. The fight is expected to end in the second round, with Fiziev exploiting openings created from Bahamondes' high output.

Predicted Score: Rafael Fiziev wins by KO/TKO in Round 2

Match Analysis: Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-09
• Time: 3:00 AM UTC
• Location: T-Mobile Arena

Game Overview

Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev are set to clash at UFC 313 in a highly anticipated lightweight bout. Gaethje is looking to bounce back from a significant loss to Max Holloway, while Fiziev steps in on short notice after a long injury layoff.

Key Factors to Consider

• Justin Gaethje is known for his aggressive style and ability to deliver exciting fights. Rafael Fiziev, though coming off an injury, has shown resilience and skill in his previous bouts. Gaethje's recent performance against Holloway raises questions about his current form.
• The two fighters have met before at UFC 286, where Gaethje won by majority decision. This rematch offers Fiziev a chance to avenge his loss.
• Rafael Fiziev is returning from a significant knee injury, which might affect his performance. Justin Gaethje is coming off a brutal KO loss, which could impact his confidence and physical condition.
• The short notice for Fiziev might impact his preparation, while Gaethje had a full camp initially planned for Dan Hooker.
• Both fighters are highly motivated, with Gaethje seeking to regain title contention and Fiziev looking to capitalize on a surprise rematch opportunity.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Justin Gaethje: +140, Rafael Fiziev: -166	Rafael Fiziev	★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread	Justin Gaethje: +3.5 -140, Rafael Fiziev: -3.5 100	Justin Gaethje +3.5	★★★☆☆ 55%
Over_under	Over 2.5: -130, Under 2.5: 100	Over 2.5	★★★☆☆ 65%

Predicted Outcome

Justin Gaethje vs. Rafael Fiziev is expected to be a closely contested fight, but Fiziev's odds suggest he is favored.

Predicted Score: Rafael Fiziev wins by decision or late stoppage.