Match Analysis: Rafael Alves vs Karl Albrektsson – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-06-28
- Time: 12:00 AM UTC
- Location: Wintrust Arena, Chicago, Illinois
Game Overview
The MMA Mixed Martial Arts match between Rafael Alves and Karl Albrektsson takes place during the 2025 PFL Light Heavyweight Semifinals. Both fighters are competing at 205 lbs, with a focus on advancing to the PFL World Tournament Finals. The bout is highly competitive given both have shown strong performances in recent bouts within the PFL season.
Key Factors to Consider
- Rafael Alves has a strong grappling and submission skill set complemented by steady striking, whereas Karl Albrektsson is known for his toughness and well-rounded striking and wrestling abilities. Alves carries momentum from his recent fights and has a slightly better overall finishing rate. Albrektsson's resilience and conditioning are notable strengths.
- There is no official record of a direct head-to-head matchup between Rafael Alves and Karl Albrektsson prior to this fight, making this encounter a fresh tactical challenge for both fighters.
- No publicly reported injuries or health issues are known for either fighter leading into the match, indicating both are likely at full fighting capacity.
- The fight occurs at a significant PFL event hosted at Wintrust Arena in Chicago, giving both fighters exposure but no home advantage. The event's high stakes and media coverage could increase motivation but also pressure.
- Both fighters are highly motivated, as a win advances them to the prestigious PFL World Tournament Finals with a substantial prize and career advancement on the line.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rafael Alves: -165, Karl Albrektsson: 135 | Rafael Alves to win | ★★★☆☆ 68% |
| Spread | Rafael Alves: -1.5, Karl Albrektsson: +1.5 | Rafael Alves by more than 1.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | over_2.5_rounds: -110, under_2.5_rounds: -110 | Under 2.5 rounds | ★★★☆☆ 58% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rafael Alves -0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | N/A |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Rafael Alves at -0% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Rafael Alves is favored to win the bout due to his slightly better odds, demonstrated finishing ability, and current form. However, Karl Albrektsson's resilience and capability to withstand pressure make this a potentially close fight.
Predicted Score: Rafael Alves wins by decision or late submission in round 3