Match Analysis: Rafa Garcia vs Jared Gordon – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-13
• Time: 12:15 AM UTC
• Location: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio

Game Overview

Lightweight bout between Rafa Garcia and Jared Gordon on UFC Fight Night 259 with Gordon as a strong favorite based on striking volume and accuracy versus Garcia's grappling strength.

Key Factors to Consider

• Jared Gordon holds a record of 21-7-0 (1 NC) and exhibits higher striking volume (5.67 per minute) and accuracy (55%) than Rafa Garcia's 4.01 strikes per minute and 43% accuracy. Garcia has a better takedown rate (3.21 per 15 minutes) and submission threat with eight submission wins.
• No direct previous matchups recorded between Rafa Garcia and Jared Gordon.
• No significant injuries reported for either fighter approaching the bout.
• Fight scheduled at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, neither fighter has a strong home advantage. The event timing and travel appear neutral.
• Both fighters are motivated to climb the lightweight rankings. Gordon’s recent KO win boosts confidence, while Garcia aims to capitalize early rounds with grappling.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Jared Gordon -250, Rafa Garcia +205	Jared Gordon	★★★★☆ 72%
Spread	Jared Gordon -3.5 100, Rafa Garcia +3.5 -140	Jared Gordon -3.5	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.5 -330, Under 2.5 +240	Over 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Jared Gordon -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -22%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Jared Gordon at -5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 0% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Jared Gordon to win by decision

Predicted Score: Jared Gordon wins by unanimous decision after 3 rounds

Match Analysis: Rafa Garcia vs Vinc Pichel – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-03-29
• Time: 9:00 PM UTC
• Location: Arena CDMX, Mexico City, Mexico

Game Overview

This lightweight bout features Rafa Garcia against Vinc Pichel as part of the UFC on ESPN 64 undercard. Garcia, known for his grappling skills, will face Pichel, who has solid striking capability but is facing challenges due to age and recent performances.

Key Factors to Consider

• Rafa Garcia has a record of 16 wins and 4 losses, showing resilience and adaptability in the cage. In his last five fights, he has won 3, indicating a solid performance trend. Pichel, with a record of 14 wins and 4 losses, has struggled with consistency, losing 3 of his last 5 fights, which raises concerns about his current form.
• Historically, both fighters have faced diverse opponents, but Garcia's recent bouts against tougher competition could give him an edge. The physical stats show Garcia's reach and youth advantage, while Pichel's knockout power is noteworthy.
• Neither fighter is reported to have significant injuries affecting their training, but Pichel's history of injuries over his career may impact his performance as he ages.
• Fighting in Mexico City may give Garcia a slight home advantage, as he is a local fighter. The altitude could also affect endurance, particularly for Pichel, who is not accustomed to fighting in such conditions.
• Both fighters are highly motivated; Garcia needs to bounce back from his recent loss to maintain relevance in the UFC, while Pichel is looking to prove he can still compete effectively despite questions about his speed and endurance.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-485 for Garcia, +370 for Pichel	Garcia will win outright	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	-3.5 for Garcia, +3.5 for Pichel	Garcia will cover the spread	★★★★☆ 75%
Over_under	Over 2.5 -345, Under 2.5 +250	Fight will go over 2.5 rounds	★★★★☆ 70%

Predicted Outcome

Rafa Garcia is predicted to win by decision, leveraging his grappling skills and ability to maintain a pace that may overwhelm Pichel.

Predicted Score: Garcia 30 – 27 Pichel