Match Analysis: Nasrat Haqparast vs Quillan Salkilld – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-10-25
• Time: 5:45 PM UTC
• Location: Etihad Arena

Game Overview

Nasrat Haqparast and Quillan Salkilld face off in a highly anticipated lightweight bout at UFC 321. Haqparast brings veteran experience with 14 UFC fights under his belt, showcasing sharp boxing and durability. Salkilld is an up-and-coming fighter known for his athleticism and evolving striking and grappling skills, but his relative inexperience and gas tank limitations could be tested.

Key Factors to Consider

• Haqparast is on a four-fight winning streak showing consistent finishing ability and composure under pressure. Salkilld impressed in his last fight with a mixed striking and wrestling approach but has less UFC experience overall.
• No prior matchups between these fighters.
• No significant injuries reported for either fighter going into the bout.
• Fight takes place at neutral Etihad Arena with no apparent home advantage. Both fighters motivated to solidify standings in the lightweight division.
• Haqparast looks to extend his UFC momentum and leverage his experience to outsmart the younger opponent. Salkilld aims to make a breakout statement and prove his evolving skill set against a seasoned veteran.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Nasrat Haqparast: -110, Quillan Salkilld: -110	Nasrat Haqparast	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Nasrat Haqparast -3.5: +165, Quillan Salkilld +3.5: -230	Quillan Salkilld +3.5	★★★☆☆ 62%
Over/under	Over 2.5 rounds: -215, Under 2.5 rounds: +165	Under 2.5 rounds	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Nasrat Haqparast 5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 59%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.5 at 59% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 35.8% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Moneyline: Nasrat Haqparast to win

Predicted Score: Nasrat Haqparast wins via decision after 3 rounds

Top EV Parlay for MMA/Boxing – October 25, 2025

Game	Pick	Odds	EV
Nasrat Haqparast vs. Quillan Salkilld Prediction	Under 2.5	165	59%
Kyle Estrada vs. Ernesto Ibarra Prediction	Over 2.5	-165	25%
Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane Prediction	Over 1.5	-120	25%

Combined Odds: +680 |
Wager: $20 —
Potential Payout: $156.06

Match Analysis: Quillan Salkilld vs Yanal Ashmoz – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-06-07
• Time: 10:00 PM UTC
• Location: Prudential Center in Newark, NJ

Game Overview

Quillan Salkilld faces Yanal Ashmoz in a Lightweight bout at UFC 316. Salkilld, a rising star from Australia with a 8-1-0 record, is favored due to his significant strike output and reach advantage. Ashmoz, known as the 'Red Fox,' is a compact powerhouse but may struggle against Salkilld's longer reach and higher strike rate.

Key Factors to Consider

• Quillan Salkilld has a higher volume of significant strikes per minute (5.68) compared to Yanal Ashmoz (2.94). However, Ashmoz is more effective at blocking strikes (55% vs 43%).
• No previous bouts between these fighters.
• No reported injuries.
• The fight is in New Jersey, which may not offer specific advantages for either fighter.
• Both fighters are highly motivated for a win, but Salkilld seems more focused on his championship aspirations.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	-550 for Quillan Salkilld, +400 for Yanal Ashmoz	Quillan Salkilld	★★★★☆ 85%
Over/under	Over 2.5 -160, Under 2.5 +130	Over 2.5	★★★★☆ 70%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Quillan Salkilld -99%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 -99%

⚠️ No clear +EV edge found for this game.

Predicted Outcome

Quillan Salkilld is likely to win due to his superior striking output and reach advantage.

Predicted Score: Quillan Salkilld wins via unanimous decision.