Match Analysis: Purdue Boilermakers vs Texas Tech Red Raiders – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: November 21, 2025
- Time: 2:30 AM UTC
- Location: Baha Mar Convention Center, Nassau, Bahamas
Game Overview
The undefeated #1-ranked Purdue Boilermakers (5-0) face the #15-ranked Texas Tech Red Raiders (4-1) in the Baha Mar Hoops Bahamas Championship. This matchup features two strong defensive teams with distinct playing styles. Purdue has dominated opponents with efficient shooting and elite defense, while Texas Tech relies on offensive firepower led by JT Toppin. The Boilermakers enter as clear favorites, seeking to maintain their perfect record against a Texas Tech team coming off a close one-point victory over Wake Forest.
Key Factors to Consider
- Purdue has been exceptional on both ends of the floor, averaging 86.6 points per game on 48% shooting with 40% three-point accuracy. Defensively, they allow just 71.6 points per game while holding opponents to 39.7% shooting. The Boilermakers' frontcourt duo of Cluff and Kaufman-Renn have controlled the boards with a 35-32 rebound edge in their last contest. Texas Tech averages 88.3 points on 46% shooting but allows 72.8 points per game defensively. JT Toppin leads the Red Raiders with 24.3 points and 11.7 rebounds per game, though the team leans heavily on him and Christian Anderson for offensive generation.
- Texas Tech has struggled historically against top-tier competition, losing each of its last eight games against Top 5 AP-ranked opponents. Additionally, the Red Raiders have lost the opening half in each of their last nine night games against Top 5 AP-ranked opponents. Conversely, Purdue has won eight of its last nine games against non-conference opponents, demonstrating consistency in tournament-style play.
- No significant injuries reported for either team in the available data.
- Both teams are competing in a neutral-site tournament in the Bahamas, which eliminates home-court advantage. This format typically favors well-coached, disciplined teams like Purdue. Texas Tech's road record shows weakness at 0-1 against the spread, though they are 3-1 in their last five games overall.
- Purdue seeks to maintain their perfect record and solidify their #1 ranking. Texas Tech, ranked #15 with one loss, aims to secure a signature win against the nation's top team and prove themselves as legitimate contenders.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Purdue -225 | Texas Tech +184 | Purdue Boilermakers | ★★★★☆ 82% |
| Spread | Purdue -4.5 (-106) | Texas Tech +4.5 (-114) | Purdue -4.5 | ★★★★☆ 78% |
| Over/under | Over 153.5 (-114) | Under 153.5 (-106) | Under 153.5 | ★★★★☆ 71% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Purdue Boilermakers 0% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Under 153.5 13% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 153.5 at 13% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 13.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Purdue Boilermakers will defeat Texas Tech Red Raiders. The Boilermakers' superior defensive efficiency, balanced scoring attack featuring Fletcher Loyer and Braden Smith's playmaking, and rebounding dominance should overwhelm Texas Tech's defense, which, while respectable, lacks the elite level needed to contain Purdue's multiple scoring options. Purdue's ability to control tempo and their proven success against non-conference opponents in tournament settings makes them the clear choice. Final score: Purdue 78, Texas Tech 65.
Predicted Score: Purdue 78, Texas Tech 65 (Total: 143)