Nikolay Veretennikov vs. Punahele Soriano Prediction MIXED_MARTIAL_ARTS in MMA/Boxing

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Match Analysis: Nikolay Veretennikov vs Punahele Soriano – Prediction

Match Details

  • Date: 2025-10-04
  • Time: 8:00 PM UTC
  • Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas

Game Overview

The UFC 320 prelim bout between Nikolay Veretennikov and Punahele Soriano features two welterweights with differing styles and career trajectories. Soriano is a proven UFC veteran (11-4, 5-4 UFC) with a heavy-handed, aggressive approach, while Veretennikov (13-6, 1-2 UFC) is looking to establish himself at the highest level. Bookmaker odds heavily favor Soriano, reflecting his higher Octagon experience and finishing power.

Key Factors to Consider

  • Soriano has a more extensive UFC track record with notable power and durability. Veretennikov is less proven in the UFC, with only four Octagon appearances and a mixed record in the big show. Soriano’s recent form has been stronger, facing higher-level competition and finishing fights with knockouts and submissions[2].
  • No prior fights between the two. However, Soriano’s resume includes bouts against tougher opposition, giving him an edge in big-game experience.
  • No significant public information suggesting injuries for either fighter[1][2].
  • The fight is at altitude in Las Vegas, and both athletes are well-prepared. No external factors stand out as likely to swing this matchup.
  • Soriano has regained momentum with a recent knockout and is looking to climb the welterweight ranks. Veretennikov has more to prove but has shown the ability to upset in the underdog role.

Odds and Predictions

Category Odds Prediction Confidence
Moneyline Soriano -332, Veretennikov +272 Soriano ★★★★☆ 81%
Over/under Over 1.5 Rounds -180, Under 1.5 Rounds +157 Under 1.5 Rounds ★★★☆☆ 68%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market EV Pick
Moneyline Punahele Soriano -6%
Spread N/A
Over/Under Under 1.5 46%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 1.5 at 46% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 29.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Punahele Soriano is the clear favorite, but the betting value is questionable due to the heavy odds. The Over is strongly favored, reflecting both fighters’ finishing instincts and Soriano’s recent tendency to end fights[2].

Predicted Score: Soriano by KO/TKO, Round 1


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