Match Analysis: Penn State Nittany Lions vs Providence Friars – Prediction
Match Details
- Date: 2025-11-22
- Time: 9:00 PM UTC
- Location: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, Connecticut
Game Overview
Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0) face the Providence Friars (3-2) in a non-conference matchup at Mohegan Sun Arena. Both teams are coming off strong starts, with Penn State undefeated and Providence showing flashes of high-level play. The game is part of the Basketball Hall of Fame Showcase, adding extra weight to the contest. Penn State has been dominant in turnover margin and three-point shooting, while Providence boasts a high-powered offense led by Jason Edwards and Jaylin Sellers.
Key Factors to Consider
- Penn State is 5-0 with a strong defensive identity, winning the turnover battle in all five games and averaging just 7.2 turnovers per game. They average 7.4 made threes per game and allow only 7.0, indicating solid perimeter defense. Providence is 3-2, averaging 9.4 made threes per game but allowing 9.8, suggesting vulnerability on the defensive perimeter. Providence is ninth in the Big East in offensive rebounding, led by Oswin Erhunmwunse. Penn State’s Kayden Mingo (17.0 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 4.4 APG) and Providence’s Jason Edwards (20.4 PPG) are the top performers.
- No recent head-to-head data is available for this matchup. Both teams have not played each other in the last several seasons, making historical trends less relevant.
- No significant injuries reported for either team as of the latest updates.
- The game is played at a neutral site (Mohegan Sun Arena), which may slightly favor Providence due to proximity to their home state. The event is part of a showcase, increasing media attention and potential pressure. Both teams are playing their first true road/neutral game of the season, which could impact early-game adjustments.
- Penn State is looking to maintain an undefeated record and prove themselves against a quality Big East opponent. Providence is seeking a signature win to boost their NCAA tournament resume and validate their offensive prowess against a strong defensive team.
Odds and Predictions
| Category | Odds | Prediction | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Penn State Nittany Lions: 172, Providence Friars: -210 | Providence Friars | ★★★☆☆ 65% |
| Spread | Penn State Nittany Lions: 4.5 -115, Providence Friars: -4.5 -105 | Providence Friars -4.5 | ★★★☆☆ 60% |
| Over/under | Over: 160.5 -105, Under: 160.5 -115 | Over 160.5 | ★★★☆☆ 55% |
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
| Market | EV Pick |
|---|---|
| Moneyline | Providence Friars -7% |
| Spread | N/A |
| Over/Under | Over 160.5 7% |
🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 160.5 at 7% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 7.8% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Penn State is favored due to their superior turnover margin, defensive consistency, and undefeated record. Providence’s offensive firepower, especially from Jason Edwards, makes them dangerous, but Penn State’s ability to limit three-pointers and force turnovers should be decisive. The game is expected to be competitive, but Penn State’s discipline and defensive structure should edge out Providence.
Predicted Score: Providence 82, Penn State 78