The Pittsburgh Pirates host the Miami Marlins in a decisive matchup of their two-game series. The Marlins took the first game 3-2, but the Pirates are favored to win the second game with Bailey Falter on the mound against Cal Quantrill.
Key Factors to Consider
Pittsburgh is 4-1 in their last five games, while Miami is 1-7 in their last eight. The Pirates have struggled offensively but have been solid at home.
Tuesday's game saw a low-scoring affair, which might repeat given the pitching matchup.
No significant injuries reported
The Pirates' home advantage could be a crucial factor.
Both teams are looking to secure a win, but the Pirates might have more momentum.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Pirates: -154, Marlins: 130
Pittsburgh Pirates
★★★☆☆ 65%
Spread
Pirates -1.5: 128, Marlins +1.5: -154
Miami Marlins +1.5
★★★☆☆ 60%
Over/under
Over 8.5: -122, Under 8.5: 100
Under 8.5
★★★★☆ 70%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Pittsburgh Pirates -9%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 8.5 20%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 8.5 at 20% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
Pittsburgh Pirates are likely to win due to their home record and recent performance.
This MLB matchup features the Philadelphia Phillies (37-25, 2nd in NL East) versus the Pittsburgh Pirates (23-40, 5th in NL Central) at PNC Park. The Phillies are in playoff contention and have a much stronger recent record, while the Pirates are struggling and far out of the postseason race[1][3].
Key Factors to Consider
The Phillies have performed well above expectations with a strong lineup and solid pitching. The Pirates have one of the worst records in the league, facing significant struggles with both hitting and consistency on the mound[1][3].
The Phillies have generally dominated recent meetings with the Pirates, supported by their current superior team strength and depth.
No major injury news for this game beyond what's available for both teams, but any last-minute changes could impact the outcome.
Weather and venue conditions are favorable at PNC Park as of game time. No expected external disruptions[4].
Phillies are highly motivated to keep pace in the playoff race. Pirates are less motivated, as they are out of contention and are likely focusing on developing younger players.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies: -104, Pittsburgh Pirates: -112
Philadelphia Phillies win
★★★☆☆ 60%
Spread
PHI -1.5 (168), PIT +1.5 (-205)
Pirates cover the spread (+1.5)
★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under
Over 6.5 (-122), Under 6.5 (100)
Under 6.5
★★★☆☆ 55%
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
Philadelphia Phillies 4%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 6.5 10%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 6.5 at 10% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 10% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
The Philadelphia Phillies are favored to win based on their superior record, recent form, and overall team strength. However, the moneyline odds are surprisingly close, reflecting a bookmaker adjustment or possibly a strong Pirates starter.
Predicted Score: Philadelphia Phillies 3, Pittsburgh Pirates 2
The Houston Astros and Pittsburgh Pirates face off in a series-deciding matchup. The Astros are currently leading the AL West with a 33-28 record, while the Pirates are fifth in the NL Central with a 22-39 record.
Key Factors to Consider
The Astros have a stronger overall record and are favored to win due to their consistent performance. The Pirates have struggled this season but can still pose a challenge at home.
Recent head-to-head data is not provided, but generally, the Astros tend to dominate similar matchups.
No specific injury reports are available for this game.
Weather conditions and crowd support could influence the game, but specific details are not available.
Both teams are motivated, but the Astros have more to gain by securing the series win.
The San Diego Padres host the Pittsburgh Pirates at Petco Park. The Padres have dominated their recent head-to-head meetings, currently riding a 9-game winning streak against the Pirates and have won all three 2025 matchups so far, most recently a 4-0 road win on May 4, 2025. Both teams have struggled with consistency, but the Padres have shown superior recent form specifically in this matchup.
Key Factors to Consider
The Padres have displayed strong pitching and timely hitting in recent games, especially against the Pirates, while the Pirates have been inconsistent offensively. The Padres have not allowed more than 2 runs to the Pirates in their last five encounters, and the largest Padres win over the Pirates by run-difference this season was a 9-4 victory on May 2, 2025.
All-time, the Padres hold a 243-274 win record (47% win rate) against the Pirates, but recent trends are overwhelmingly in San Diego's favor (9-game win streak, two of which are the largest streaks in history). They have won 10 out of the last 15 matchups across the last three seasons.
No significant recent injury news affecting either team’s key players for this matchup.
Home advantage for the Padres at Petco Park, which is considered pitcher-friendly and generally lower scoring. Weather forecast is favorable for baseball—no rain or extreme temperatures expected.
Padres are motivated to extend their historic win streak and build momentum, while the Pirates are looking to break the streak and stabilize their season.
Odds and Predictions
Category
Odds
Prediction
Confidence
Moneyline
San Diego Padres: -230, Pittsburgh Pirates: 190
San Diego Padres
High (80%)
Spread
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-122), San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+102)
San Diego Padres -1.5
Moderate (60%)
Over/under
Over: 7.5 (-110), Under: 7.5 (-110)
Under 7.5
Moderate-High (65%)
Top EV Betting Odds
Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.
Market
EV Pick
Moneyline
San Diego Padres -4%
Spread
N/A
Over/Under
Under 7.5 5%
🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 7.5 at 5% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 5.5% (Kelly Criterion)
Predicted Outcome
San Diego Padres are favored to win this matchup due to their recent head-to-head dominance, superior pitching, and home-field advantage. Confidence in a Padres win is high based on current form and streaks.
Predicted Score: San Diego Padres 4, Pittsburgh Pirates 1