Match Analysis: Pisa vs Fiorentina – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-28
• Time: 1:00 PM UTC
• Location: Arena Garibaldi-Romeo Anconetani, Pisa, Italy

Game Overview

This Serie A match features Pisa, currently struggling in 19th position and fighting relegation, against Fiorentina, who sit just above at 17th. Pisa has been in poor form with 4 losses in their last 4 matches, scoring only 2 goals while conceding 10. Fiorentina have been relatively more stable with 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses in their last 10 games, scoring 12 goals and conceding 10. It is the first official meeting between these two clubs in Serie A.

Key Factors to Consider

• Pisa has had a very difficult run with 0 wins in their last 4 matches and an average of 0.5 goals scored per game, while conceding 1.5 goals on average. Fiorentina's form has been steadier with a points gain from 8 of their last 10 games combined, an average of 1.2 goals scored per game, and a slightly better defense.
• This will be the first official Serie A match between Pisa and Fiorentina, so no direct head-to-head data exists. Pisa's recent results are poor compared to Fiorentina's mixed but stronger recent outcomes.
• No specific injury data is available in the retrieved sources, indicating no major known injury concerns for either side at this match date.
• Playing at home in Arena Garibaldi-Romeo Anconetani should provide Pisa with some advantage, but their poor home form and Fiorentina's experience may negate this. Weather and other external elements were not reported as impactful.
• Pisa is highly motivated to avoid relegation and desperately needs points. Fiorentina also need points to secure safety and push higher in the table, suggesting a competitive encounter.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Fiorentina: 1.21, Pisa: 2.35, Draw: 2.25	Fiorentina Win	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	Fiorentina: -0.25 at -112, Pisa: +25 at -108	Fiorentina -0.25	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 2.25: -102, Under 2.25: -118	Under 2.25 Goals	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Fiorentina 17%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.25 2%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Fiorentina at 17% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 14.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Fiorentina is favored to win this match given their superior form, attacking potential, and defensive stability. The match may be closely contested, but Fiorentina's quality edge likely secures a narrow away victory.

Predicted Score: 0-1

Match Analysis: Napoli vs Pisa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-22
• Time: 6:45 PM UTC
• Location: Stadio Diego Armando Maradona, Naples, Italy

Game Overview

Napoli, currently top of Serie A with three wins from three matches, face Pisa who are struggling in 18th place with one point so far. Napoli aims to maintain their perfect home record and continue their title push, while Pisa, recently promoted, have scored only once in three rounds and are yet to register a strong offensive display in the league. Napoli suffered a recent Champions League loss but remain confident to dominate this fixture. Pisa is expected to struggle to contain Napoli’s attacking strength.

Key Factors to Consider

• Napoli is in excellent form domestically with a 100% winning record so far and a robust defensive and offensive setup. Pisa, on the other hand, has one point from three matches with poor attacking stats and recent 0-1 home defeat to Udinese, showing difficulty converting chances and limited skill in the final third.
• This match marks the first official competitive meeting between Napoli and Pisa in Serie A history.
• Napoli will be without Nikita Contini, Amir Rrahmani, and Romelu Lukaku due to injury, though they retain strong squad depth. Pisa are missing Juan Cuadrado through injury.
• Napoli plays at home in a large stadium with strong fan support. No significant weather or pitch conditions affect play. Napoli’s recent Champions League defeat could motivate a strong domestic rebound.
• Napoli is highly motivated to maintain their perfect domestic record and strengthen their lead in Serie A title race. Pisa aims to gain their first win and points on the road but faces a tough challenge.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Napoli: -380, Pisa: 1000, Draw: 460	Napoli win	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Napoli -1.5: -115, Pisa +1.5: -105	Napoli -1.5	★★★★☆ 80%
Over/under	Over 2.5: -112, Under 2.5: -108	Over 2.5 goals	★★★☆☆ 65%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Napoli -5%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Over 2.5 14%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Over 2.5 at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 15.2% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Napoli to win comfortably given superior team quality, form, home advantage, and Pisa’s offensive struggles.

Predicted Score: 3-0

Match Analysis: Pisa vs Udinese – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-09-14
• Time: 1:00 PM UTC
• Location: Arena Garibaldi – Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Pisa, Italy

Game Overview

Pisa will host Udinese in this Serie A Round 3 fixture. Pisa currently ranks 14th in the league, while Udinese holds a stronger 5th position. Pisa seeks their first Serie A home win since promotion, facing an Udinese side with more top-tier experience and tactical cohesion under coach Runjaic. Both teams have enhanced their attacking options during transfer windows, but Udinese is currently in better form, unbeaten in their last 6 matches and having scored more goals recently.

Key Factors to Consider

• Pisa has scored 3 goals in their last 5 matches and shows some attacking creativity, with Idrissa Toure creating the most big chances. Goalkeeper Adrian Semper leads the competition in saves per match (4.5). Udinese has scored 8 goals in their last 5 matches and maintains an unbeaten streak of 6 games, showing strong offensive and defensive stability, having been awarded the most penalties this season.
• Historically, Udinese has the upper hand, being a mainstay in Serie A and consistently finishing higher in the table. Previous encounters suggest Udinese's stronger display both tactically and technically. No exact recent H2H scorelines are detailed, but bookies and previews favor Udinese.
• No specific injury information is reported for either team in the available data, suggesting both squads will likely field their strongest lineups.
• The match is played at Pisa's home stadium which may give them slight home advantage, though Udinese's superior league placement and form may mitigate this. There are no reported adverse weather or external conditions affecting the match.
• Pisa aims to secure their first home win this Serie A season and prove themselves after promotion. Udinese strives to maintain their strong standing in the top 5 and extend their unbeaten run, motivated by higher league ambitions.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Pisa: 180, Udinese: 172, Draw: 205	Udinese win	★★★☆☆ 68%
Spread	Pisa: 0 -108, Udinese: 0 -112	Udinese to cover the spread (draw no bet)	★★★☆☆ 65%
Over/under	Over 2.25: 1.05, Under 2.25: -1.25	Under 2.25 goals	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Udinese 14%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.25 13%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Udinese at 14% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 8.3% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Udinese is favored to win with a forecasted score of 2-1, based on their current form and superior league position. Pisa may put up a competitive fight at home but likely will struggle to contain Udinese’s attacking prowess.

Predicted Score: Pisa 1 – 2 Udinese

Match Analysis: Pisa vs AS Roma – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-30
• Time: 6:45 PM UTC
• Location: Arena Garibaldi-Romeo Anconetani, Pisa, Italy

Game Overview

The Serie A match features Pisa hosting AS Roma at Arena Garibaldi-Romeo Anconetani on August 30, 2025, at 18:45 UTC. Pisa currently rank 11th in Serie A, while Roma hold 6th position. Roma are favorites based on recent performances and odds, with Pisa showing mixed form. The match promises tactical battle with Roma's stronger recent home and overall form expected to challenge Pisa's resilience at home.

Key Factors to Consider

• Pisa has had a mixed recent run, with draws and wins close to the Serie A and Coppa Italia matches but showing struggles against higher-tier teams. Roma have demonstrated stronger form with consecutive wins including a recent 1-0 victory over Bologna and decent showings in friendlies, indicating good attacking and defensive balance.
• Historically, Roma have had the upper hand over Pisa. The teams have met previously in Serie A with Roma generally favored. No direct recent H2H results given except the match scheduled for August 30. Past meetings reflect Roma's dominance in standings and results, reinforcing their favorite status.
• No specific injury or suspension data available from current search results for either team. Both squads are presumed close to full strength for this fixture based on the latest match reports and lineups from Sofascore and FotMob.
• The match is at Pisa's home stadium, which may provide an advantage for the home side, although Roma have stronger away odds and form. Weather or other environmental factors are not reported but could moderately influence play style given the early season timing.
• Roma, sitting higher in the table, are motivated to solidify their position with a win against Pisa, who will aim to improve league standing and avoid early season slip-ups. Given Pisa’s mid-table position, motivation to upset a top 6 club at home could be high, but Roma’s ambition for European qualification boosts their incentive.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	AS Roma: -141, Pisa: 405, Draw: 270	AS Roma to win	★★★★☆ 75%
Spread	AS Roma: -0.75 -108, Pisa: 75 -112	Roma -0.75	★★★☆☆ 68%
Over/under	Over 2.5: 100, Under 2.5: -120	Under 2.5 goals	★★★☆☆ 55%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	AS Roma 3%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.5 1%

🔥 Best Value Pick: AS Roma at 3% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 3.6% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

AS Roma is predicted to win by a narrow margin due to superior form, squad strength, and odds favoring them. A closely contested match with Roma controlling most phases but facing resistance from Pisa's home support.

Predicted Score: Pisa 0 – 2 AS Roma

Match Analysis: Atalanta BC vs Pisa – Prediction

Match Details

• Date: 2025-08-24
• Time: 6:45 PM UTC
• Location: Gewiss Stadium, Bergamo, Italy

Game Overview

The Serie A opening round match features Atalanta BC hosting newly promoted Pisa. Atalanta finished 3rd last season with Champions League qualification and have a new head coach, Ivan Juric, after a strong pre-season showing. Pisa returns to Serie A after decades, coming off a solid 76-point campaign in Serie B. The clash pits a top-tier team with European ambitions against a team aiming to establish itself in Italy's top flight.

Key Factors to Consider

• Atalanta ended last season strongly, finishing third with 74 points and qualified for the Champions League. Under new head coach Ivan Juric, they have won half their pre-season matches but lost 2-1 to Juventus in their last friendly. Pisa, promoted for the first time since 1990-91, obtained 76 points in Serie B last season and recently advanced in the Coppa Italia on penalties after a goalless draw, signaling readiness though some competitive rust.
• There is no recent direct Serie A head-to-head between Atalanta and Pisa as Pisa has just returned to the top tier after many years. Historical meetings are scarce, so Atalanta holds a clear advantage in experience and quality. The home advantage at Gewiss Stadium also factors strongly in Atalanta's favor.
• No explicit injuries reported for either side in available current data; no major absences expected to impact either team's starting XI significantly.
• Atalanta's managerial change could affect team dynamics early in the season, but their home stadium advantage and established stronger squad provide stability. Pisa's return to Serie A after a long absence entails motivation but risks being outmatched by elite talent and game intensity.
• Atalanta aims to start their Champions League qualifying domestic season positively under new management, maintaining momentum and asserting dominance early. Pisa is highly motivated to prove themselves in Italy's top league after promotion and to avoid immediate relegation.

Odds and Predictions

Category	Odds	Prediction	Confidence
Moneyline	Atalanta BC: -240, Pisa: 640, Draw: 379	Atalanta BC to win	★★★★☆ 85%
Spread	Atalanta BC: -1.25 -115, Pisa: +1.25 -105	Atalanta BC -1.25	★★★★☆ 75%
Over/under	Over: 2.75 -121, Under: 2.75 101	Under 2.75 goals	★★★☆☆ 60%

Top EV Betting Odds

Discover the best value bets based on our EV analysis.

Market	EV Pick
Moneyline	Atalanta BC -4%
Spread	N/A
Over/Under	Under 2.75 21%

🔥 Best Value Pick: Under 2.75 at 21% EV | Suggested Bet Size: 20.4% (Kelly Criterion)

Predicted Outcome

Atalanta is strongly favored to win, leveraging home advantage, superior squad quality, and Serie A experience. Pisa may struggle but could keep the scoreline respectable, potentially earning a draw if Atalanta underestimates them.

Predicted Score: 2-0

3 Pick Daily Parlay

Game	Pick	Odds (American)	Confidence
Atalanta BC vs. Pisa Prediction	Atalanta BC -1.25	-115	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Charlotte FC vs. New York Red Bulls Prediction	Charlotte FC Win	-119	★★★★☆ 75% (75%)
Juventude vs. Botafogo Prediction	Botafogo -0.5	-105	★★★★☆ 70% (70%)

Parlay Odds Calculation

Combined American Odds: +572

Wager: $20 — Potential Payout: $134.35